Cattle on Feed ISSN: 1948-9080 Released March 22, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Down 7 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on March 1, 2013. The inventory was 7 percent below March 1, 2012. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.48 million, 14 percent below 2012. Net placements were 1.42 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 355,000, 600-699 pounds were 270,000, 700-799 pounds were 407,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 450,000. Placements are the lowest for February since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.64 million, 7 percent below 2012. Other disappearance totaled 60,000 during February, 35 percent below 2012. Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: March 1, 2012 and 2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2012 : 2013 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed February 1 .....................: 11,811 11,073 94 Placed on feed during February .........: 1,714 1,482 86 Fed cattle marketed during February ....: 1,755 1,638 93 Other disappearance during February ....: 93 60 65 On feed March 1 ........................: 11,677 10,857 93 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: February 1, 2012 and 2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : Percent of Item :---------------------------: : 2012 : 2013 :previous year ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 head ---- percent : On feed January 1 ......................: 11,861 11,193 94 Placed on feed during January ..........: 1,847 1,876 102 Fed cattle marketed during January .....: 1,816 1,917 106 Other disappearance during January .....: 81 79 98 On feed February 1 .....................: 11,811 11,073 94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : March 1, 2013 : : :----------------------------------------- State : March 1, 2012 :February 1, 2013 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- 1,000 head ------------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ........: 279 275 270 97 98 California .....: 500 480 480 96 100 Colorado .......: 1,090 1,010 990 91 98 Idaho ..........: 230 225 225 98 100 Iowa ...........: 670 640 640 96 100 Kansas .........: 2,200 2,110 2,050 93 97 Nebraska .......: 2,570 2,470 2,430 95 98 Oklahoma .......: 340 325 305 90 94 South Dakota ...: 260 225 230 88 102 Texas ..........: 2,840 2,620 2,550 90 97 Washington .....: 233 234 233 100 100 : Other States ...: 465 459 454 98 99 : United States ..: 11,677 11,073 10,857 93 98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2013 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2012 : January 2013 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ---- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 25 30 23 92 77 California .......: 50 55 48 96 87 Colorado .........: 165 190 160 97 84 Idaho ............: 37 37 36 97 97 Iowa .............: 85 100 71 84 71 Kansas ...........: 370 430 295 80 69 Nebraska .........: 410 475 350 85 74 Oklahoma .........: 48 50 37 77 74 South Dakota .....: 47 36 45 96 125 Texas ............: 380 390 340 89 87 Washington .......: 41 29 35 85 121 : Other States .....: 56 54 42 75 78 : United States ....: 1,714 1,876 1,482 86 79 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : During February :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 30 30 30 25 40 50 65 55 165 160 Kansas .......: 70 60 75 50 130 90 95 95 370 295 Nebraska .....: 60 60 70 60 110 100 170 130 410 350 Texas ........: 145 115 85 70 95 100 55 55 380 340 : Other States .: 95 90 75 65 94 67 125 115 389 337 : United States : 400 355 335 270 469 407 510 450 1,714 1,482 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During January :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Under 600 lbs: 600-699 lbs : 700-799 lbs : 800+ lbs : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head : Colorado .....: 30 30 50 45 60 60 50 55 190 190 Kansas .......: 70 70 100 95 155 150 85 115 410 430 Nebraska .....: 60 60 110 95 120 160 140 160 430 475 Texas ........: 150 175 85 80 105 75 60 60 400 390 : Other States .: 135 110 85 80 85 90 112 111 417 391 : United States : 445 445 430 395 525 535 447 501 1,847 1,876 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number of Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2013 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2012 : January 2013 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 head ----------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 21 26 27 129 104 California .......: 53 50 46 87 92 Colorado .........: 200 175 170 85 97 Idaho ............: 41 40 35 85 88 Iowa .............: 62 77 68 110 88 Kansas ...........: 385 415 345 90 83 Nebraska .........: 390 470 380 97 81 Oklahoma .........: 61 68 55 90 81 South Dakota .....: 45 40 39 87 98 Texas ............: 415 465 395 95 85 Washington .......: 32 40 34 106 85 : Other States .....: 50 51 44 88 86 : United States ....: 1,755 1,917 1,638 93 85 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month - States and United States: 2012 and 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During February 2013 : During : During :-------------------------------------------- State :February 2012 : January 2013 : : Percent of : Percent of : : : Number :previous year :previous month --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 head ---------- ----- percent ---- : Arizona ..........: 1 1 1 100 100 California .......: 2 5 2 100 40 Colorado .........: 15 5 10 67 200 Idaho ............: 1 2 1 100 50 Iowa .............: 3 3 3 100 100 Kansas ...........: 15 15 10 67 67 Nebraska .........: 20 15 10 50 67 Oklahoma .........: 2 2 2 100 100 South Dakota .....: 2 1 1 50 100 Texas ............: 25 25 15 60 60 Washington .......: 3 2 2 67 100 : Other States .....: 4 3 3 75 100 : United States ....: 93 79 60 65 76 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16 States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Individual State estimates are published monthly for 11 of the 16 States. Data collected from the remaining 5 States are used to establish the "Other States" estimates. These 5 States include Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when establishing the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.9 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 12,000 head, ranging from 0 to 47,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has been above the latest estimate 11 times and has been below the latest estimate 2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates [[Based on data for the past 24 months]] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number ---- : Number on feed ...............: 0.2 0.3 12 0 47 2 11 : Placements ...................: 0.3 0.6 3 0 20 4 7 : Marketings ...................: 0.3 0.5 3 0 20 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Alissa Cowell-Mytar - Sheep and Goats ........ (202) 720-4751 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Tiffany Hora - Livestock Slaughter ........... (515) 284-4340 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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