Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 11, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 2 Percent from December Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 8.83 million tons, down 2 percent from both the previous forecast and the 2011-2012 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 142 million boxes (6.39 million tons), is down 3 percent from both the December forecast and last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), down 1 percent from the December forecast and down 11 percent from last season. Projected droppage is the highest since the 1969-1970 season while size is projected to be below average. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 76.0 million boxes (3.42 million tons), is down 4 percent from the December forecast but up 5 percent from the 2011-2012 crop. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the December forecast but down 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down 2 percent from last season's yield of 1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.71 gallons per box, 2 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on January 11, 2013. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Michael T. Scuse Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted January 1, 2013.......................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2011 and 2012...................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2012 and 2013.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2012 and 2013.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units)............................... 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units)................................. 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted January 1, 2013 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011-2012 : 2012-2013 : 2011-2012 : 2012-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and Navel 2/ : California .................: 45,500 46,500 1,820 1,860 Florida ....................: 74,200 66,000 3,339 2,970 Texas ......................: 1,108 1,220 47 52 : United States ..............: 120,808 113,720 5,206 4,882 : Valencia : California .................: 13,500 13,000 540 520 Florida ....................: 72,400 76,000 3,258 3,420 Texas ......................: 311 286 13 12 : United States ..............: 86,211 89,286 3,811 3,952 : All : California .................: 59,000 59,500 2,360 2,380 Florida ....................: 146,600 142,000 6,597 6,390 Texas ......................: 1,419 1,506 60 64 : United States ..............: 207,019 203,006 9,017 8,834 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 5,350 5,000 228 213 : Colored : Florida ....................: 13,500 13,000 574 553 : All : California .................: 4,400 4,000 176 160 Florida ....................: 18,850 18,000 802 766 Texas ......................: 4,800 5,280 192 211 : United States ..............: 28,050 27,280 1,170 1,137 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ ...................: 200 200 8 8 California 3/ ................: 10,900 11,800 436 472 Florida ......................: 4,290 3,800 204 181 : United States ................: 15,390 15,800 648 661 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 750 1,800 30 72 California ...................: 20,500 20,500 820 820 : United States ................: 21,250 22,300 850 892 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 1,150 1,100 52 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2011 and 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 187 269 1,385 1,620 Arizona .......: 40 35 250 240 Arkansas ......: 380 340 1,550 1,150 California ....: 160 240 1,640 1,900 Colorado ......: 450 230 1,800 1,600 Connecticut ...: 12 12 55 52 Delaware ......: 3 4 13 17 Florida .......: 45 42 400 470 Georgia .......: 188 169 800 1,200 Idaho .........: 280 700 2,000 2,100 : Illinois ......: 320 300 980 1,050 Indiana .......: 225 165 1,300 900 Iowa ..........: 610 500 2,750 1,840 Kansas ........: 1,000 650 3,900 3,000 Kentucky ......: 799 775 3,840 3,400 Louisiana .....: 110 70 540 905 Maine .........: 23 35 133 127 Maryland ......: 65 80 360 310 Massachusetts .: 10 15 71 81 Michigan ......: 420 360 1,500 850 : Minnesota .....: 810 900 3,800 2,800 Mississippi ...: 137 251 1,486 1,365 Missouri ......: 1,325 1,025 5,450 4,600 Montana .......: 1,300 1,550 4,900 3,800 Nebraska ......: 1,335 1,070 4,275 3,050 Nevada ........: 46 238 830 650 New Hampshire .: 6 13 49 49 New Jersey ....: 17 12 81 119 New Mexico ....: 100 120 575 600 New York ......: 273 327 1,800 1,800 : North Carolina : 253 369 1,175 1,200 North Dakota ..: 1,250 1,700 6,100 4,500 Ohio ..........: 390 308 1,778 1,200 Oklahoma ......: 1,200 500 2,800 2,900 Oregon ........: 280 275 2,200 1,700 Pennsylvania ..: 340 450 1,950 1,700 Rhode Island ..: 1 1 8 7 South Carolina : 110 80 400 440 South Dakota ..: 1,850 2,400 8,400 4,300 Tennessee .....: 746 716 3,101 2,700 : Texas .........: 2,500 950 3,800 6,100 Utah ..........: 144 350 1,420 900 Vermont .......: 48 45 215 200 Virginia ......: 402 900 2,500 2,300 Washington ....: 350 230 1,460 1,200 West Virginia .: 190 285 953 795 Wisconsin .....: 1,122 925 2,653 1,810 Wyoming .......: 365 400 1,300 950 : United States .: 22,217 21,381 90,726 76,547 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3,637 3,244 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 97,155 87,375 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 7,379 Hay, all .......................: (NA) 56,260 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 17,292 All other ....................: (NA) 38,968 Oats ...........................: 2,760 1,045 Proso millet ...................: 335 205 Rice ...........................: 2,699 2,678 Rye ............................: 1,300 248 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 6,244 4,955 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 363 Wheat, all .....................: 55,736 48,991 Winter .......................: 41,324 41,820 34,834 Durum ........................: 2,123 2,102 Other spring .................: 12,289 12,055 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,765.0 1,729.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 344 336 Mustard seed ...................: 51.1 49.7 Peanuts ........................: 1,638.0 1,608.0 Rapeseed .......................: 2.2 2.1 Safflower ......................: 169.8 160.1 Soybeans for beans .............: 77,198 76,104 Sunflower ......................: 1,919.0 1,841.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 12,315.4 9,426.8 Upland .......................: 12,077.0 9,190.0 American Pima ................: 238.4 236.8 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,230.1 1,204.2 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 899.0 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 336.2 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 19.0 13.7 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,742.5 1,690.4 Dry edible peas ................: 649.0 621.0 Lentils ........................: 463.0 450.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.1 Hops ...........................: (NA) 31.9 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 76.0 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,148.3 1,132.7 Spring .......................: 96.8 94.6 Summer .......................: 49.8 48.5 Fall .........................: 1,001.7 989.6 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 20.0 Sweet potatoes .................: 130.5 126.6 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 67.9 220,284 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 123.4 10,780,296 Corn for silage ....................tons: 15.4 113,450 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.13 119,878 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.01 52,049 All other ........................tons: 1.74 67,829 Oats ............................bushels: 61.3 64,024 Proso millet ....................bushels: 15.1 3,090 Rice 3/ .............................cwt: 7,449 199,479 Rye .............................bushels: 28.0 6,944 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 49.8 246,932 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 11.4 4,135 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.3 2,269,117 Winter ........................bushels: 47.2 1,645,202 Durum .........................bushels: 39.0 81,956 Other spring ..................bushels: 45.0 541,959 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,416 2,447,410 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,759.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.1 5,762 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 602 29,930 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,192 6,741,400 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,205 4,630 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,121 179,424 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 39.6 3,014,998 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,513 2,785,695 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 3/ ....................bales: 866 17,009.9 Upland 3/ .......................bales: 849 16,250.0 American Pima 3/ ................bales: 1,540 759.9 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.3 35,236 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.3 32,637 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,268 762,441 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 3/ .............cwt: 1,219 167 Dry edible beans 3/ .................cwt: 1,889 31,925 Dry edible peas 3/ ..................cwt: 1,751 10,872 Lentils 3/ ..........................cwt: 1,178 5,302 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 406 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,180 7,200 Hops .............................pounds: 1,918 61,249.2 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 87 6,605 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 412 467,126 Spring ............................cwt: 283 26,736 Summer ............................cwt: 368 17,855 Fall ..............................cwt: 427 422,535 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 120 2,390 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 209 26,482 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,400 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NANot available. (X)Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. 3/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,471,860 1,312,810 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:39,317,660 35,359,790 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,986,210 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 22,767,860 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,997,900 All other ....................: (NA) 15,769,960 Oats ...........................: 1,116,940 422,900 Proso millet ...................: 135,570 82,960 Rice ...........................: 1,092,260 1,083,760 Rye ............................: 526,100 100,360 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,526,880 2,005,240 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 146,900 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,555,800 19,826,170 Winter .......................:16,723,410 16,924,140 14,096,970 Durum ........................: 859,160 850,660 Other spring .................: 4,973,240 4,878,540 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 714,280 699,710 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 139,210 135,980 Mustard seed ...................: 20,680 20,110 Peanuts ........................: 662,880 650,740 Rapeseed .......................: 890 850 Safflower ......................: 68,720 64,790 Soybeans for beans .............:31,241,260 30,798,530 Sunflower ......................: 776,600 745,030 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,983,920 3,814,930 Upland .......................: 4,887,440 3,719,100 American Pima ................: 96,480 95,830 Sugarbeets .....................: 497,810 487,330 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 363,820 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 136,070 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 7,690 5,540 Dry edible beans ...............: 705,170 684,090 Dry edible peas ................: 262,640 251,310 Lentils ........................: 187,370 182,110 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,470 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,920 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 30,760 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 464,710 458,390 Spring .......................: 39,170 38,280 Summer .......................: 20,150 19,630 Fall .........................: 405,380 400,480 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 8,090 Sweet potatoes .................: 52,810 51,230 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3.65 4,796,120 Corn for grain .................: 7.74 273,832,130 Corn for silage ................: 34.47 102,920,110 Hay, all 2/ ....................: 4.78 108,751,490 Alfalfa ......................: 6.75 47,218,060 All other ....................: 3.90 61,533,430 Oats ...........................: 2.20 929,310 Proso millet ...................: 0.84 70,080 Rice ...........................: 8.35 9,048,220 Rye ............................: 1.76 176,390 Sorghum for grain ..............: 3.13 6,272,360 Sorghum for silage .............: 25.54 3,751,210 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 3.11 61,755,240 Winter .......................: 3.18 44,775,060 Durum ........................: 2.62 2,230,480 Other spring .................: 3.02 14,749,710 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1.59 1,110,130 Cottonseed .....................: (X) 5,224,480 Flaxseed .......................: 1.08 146,360 Mustard seed ...................: 0.67 13,580 Peanuts ........................: 4.70 3,057,850 Rapeseed .......................: 2.47 2,100 Safflower ......................: 1.26 81,390 Soybeans for beans .............: 2.66 82,054,800 Sunflower ......................: 1.70 1,263,570 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 0.97 3,703,470 Upland .......................: 0.95 3,538,020 American Pima ................: 1.73 165,450 Sugarbeets .....................: 65.59 31,965,560 Sugarcane ......................: 81.38 29,607,790 Tobacco ........................: 2.54 345,840 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 1.37 7,570 Dry edible beans ...............: 2.12 1,448,090 Dry edible peas ................: 1.96 493,150 Lentils ........................: 1.32 240,490 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) 18,420 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: 1.32 3,270 Hops ...........................: 2.15 27,780 Peppermint oil .................: 0.10 3,000 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 46.22 21,188,480 Spring .......................: 31.68 1,212,720 Summer .......................: 41.26 809,890 Fall .........................: 47.86 19,165,870 Spearmint oil ..................: 0.13 1,080 Sweet potatoes .................: 23.45 1,201,200 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 1,540 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NANot available. (X)Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ..............................tons: 1,170 1,137 Lemons ..................................tons: 850 892 Oranges .................................tons: 9,017 8,834 Tangelos (Florida) ......................tons: 52 50 Tangerines and mandarins ................tons: 648 661 : Noncitrus : Apples ..........................1,000 pounds: 8,065.7 Apricots ................................tons: 67.8 Bananas (Hawaii) ......................pounds: Grapes ..................................tons: 7,296.8 Olives (California) .....................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ......................pounds: Peaches .................................tons: 1,023.3 Pears ...................................tons: 878.5 Prunes, dried (California) ..............tons: Prunes and plums (excludes California) ..tons: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .........pounds: 2,100,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ............tons: 40.0 Pecans, in-shell ......................pounds: 308,600 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ..........tons: 470 Maple syrup ..........................gallons: 1,908 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ..................................: 1,061,410 1,031,470 Lemons ......................................: 771,110 809,210 Oranges .....................................: 8,180,080 8,014,070 Tangelos (Florida) ..........................: 47,170 45,360 Tangerines and mandarins ....................: 587,860 599,650 : Noncitrus : Apples ......................................: 3,658,540 Apricots ....................................: 61,490 Bananas (Hawaii) ............................: Grapes ......................................: 6,619,550 Olives (California) .........................: Papayas (Hawaii) ............................: Peaches .....................................: 928,320 Pears .......................................: 796,960 Prunes, dried (California) ..................: Prunes and plums (excludes California) ......: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ...............: 952,540 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ................: 36,290 Pecans, in-shell ............................: 139,980 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ..............: 426,380 Maple syrup .................................: 9,540 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. December Weather Summary Despite occasional December precipitation across the Nation's mid-section, hard red winter wheat conditions remained mostly steady or declined due to poor crop establishment and acute soil moisture shortages. In addition, drought intensified across southern portions of the Plains, especially from southern Texas into eastern Kansas. By December 30, the portion of the Plains' wheat rated in very poor to poor condition included 61 percent in Oklahoma, 49 percent in Nebraska, and 31 percent in Kansas. However, enough snow fell across the northern and central Plains to provide some degree of insulation from temperatures that locally and periodically fell to -10 degrees Fahrenheit or lower. In contrast, significant precipitation fell in much of the soft red winter wheat belt, particularly across the Ohio Valley. As a result, most of the wheat continued to thrive across the Mid-South and lower Midwest. By month's end, 70 percent of the Illinois wheat crop was rated good to excellent. In both the Ohio Valley and the upper Midwest, enough of December's precipitation fell in the frozen form to establish a substantial snow cover. Meanwhile, widespread precipitation also fell in much of the East, although rain was spotty across Florida. Some of the heaviest precipitation, relative to normal, fell across the Northeast and from the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians. Elsewhere, much of the West experienced unsettled weather during December. Precipitation was especially heavy from northern California into the Intermountain West. For example, the average water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snow pack increased by 10 inches during the month, reaching 14 inches (137 percent of normal) by the end of December. The Nation's winter agricultural regions escaped significant freezes during December, although there were several chilly mornings - particularly from December 19-21 - in California and the Desert Southwest. Florida's coldest morning, for the most part, occurred on December 23. Overall, December temperatures were highly variable in the West but mostly above normal across the eastern half of the Nation. Western temperatures were influenced by snow cover, mainly in parts of the Intermountain region. December Agricultural Summary Temperatures from the Great Plains eastward were well above normal during December, allowing producers with unharvested crops additional time to complete fieldwork while aiding the establishment of winter wheat. Most notably, temperatures for an area centered over the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley averaged more than 6 degrees above normal. In the West, monthly temperatures were near-normal. Precipitation totals for the Nation varied drastically during the December. Much of the southern Great Plains accumulated rain and snow totaling less than 25 percent of normal, while portions of Great Basin and Northeast received more than 200 percent of their normal precipitation. In the South, a variety of producer activities were ongoing throughout the month. Barley and Durum wheat were sown in Arizona, as cotton producers finished harvesting their crop. Growers in Texas readied fields for spring planting following the completion of cotton harvesting and small grain seeding. Elsewhere, general equipment and field maintenance was completed as conditions allowed. Fruit and vegetable producers in the major producing States harvested and shipped a variety of crops throughout the month, with replanting ongoing as conditions allowed. Unfavorably dry conditions led to further deterioration of winter wheat in some areas. By December 30, the portion of the Plains' wheat rated in very poor to poor condition included 61 percent in Oklahoma, 49 percent in Nebraska, and 31 percent in Kansas. Conversely, increased moisture in areas of the Corn Belt benefitted not only winter wheat, but helped to somewhat replenish soil moisture levels as producers begin to plan for the 2013 crop season. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The 2012-2013 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.14 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast but down 3 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, droppage is expected to be above average for both white and colored grapefruit, while the average size is projected to be smaller than normal for both types. Lemons: The forecast for the 2012-2013 United States lemon crop is 892,000 tons, up slightly from the October forecast and up 5 percent from last season's final utilization. Arizona's lemon crop is forecast to be up 140 percent from last season's freeze reduced crop. Lemon harvest continued in both Arizona and California. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), unchanged from the December forecast but down 4 percent from last season's final utilization. Fruit size is projected to be below average with above average droppage. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 661,000 tons, unchanged from the December forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, sizes for all varieties of tangerines are expected to be below average with above average droppage. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows reached the low 30's in places, but avoided fruit damaging levels. Rainfall was moderate, but widespread across the citrus producing region for most of the month. Harvesting of early and mid oranges and grapefruit was well underway. Harvesting, mowing, and general grove maintenance were the primary grove activities. California citrus: The citrus crop was not affected by the late December cold snap. Satsuma mandarin, Owari, and Clementine tangerine harvests continued. Navel orange harvest also continued as the cooler weather improved external maturity. Cara Cara orange, hybrid grapefruit, lime, and lemon harvests were ongoing. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Asian pear and Fuyu and Hachiya persimmon harvests were completed in December. Pineapple quinces, figs, and apples continued to be harvested. Early Wonderful and Wonderful pomegranate varieties as well as kiwi harvest were finished. Table and wine grape harvests were complete. Grapevines were dormant and pruning was ongoing. The olive harvest was complete in the Southern San Joaquin Valley. The harvest of walnuts was complete and groves were being irrigated, pruned and sprayed. Nut crops were being sprayed with dormant sprays. Bees were being brought in from out of state in preparation for almond bloom. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on farms December 1, 2012 totaled 76.5 million tons, down 16 percent from a year ago. This is the lowest December 1 stocks level since 1957. Disappearance from May 1, 2012 - December 1, 2012 totaled 64.7 million tons, compared with 62.7 million tons for the same period a year ago. Compared with last year, hay stocks as a percent of production decreased throughout much of the western United States. Prolonged dryness coupled with hot temperatures stifled not only pasture and range growth, but growth of alfalfa fields as well. As a result, overall hay production was negatively impacted in many States. In addition, livestock producers were forced to feed their herds earlier than normal due to the diminished availability of native feedstuffs. Elsewhere, the increase in on-farm stocks as a percent of production across much of the Northern Tier resulted mostly from producers holding a larger portion of their 2011 hay crop in storage due to an unusually mild winter and earlier availability of spring pastures. Similarly, hay stock levels were higher than last year in many Atlantic Coast States. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 72 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 3.1 percent regardless if you exclude the three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.3 percent regardless of whether abnormal seasons are excluded. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 279,000 tons regardless of whether abnormal seasons are excluded, ranging from 13,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Brent Chittenden - Oats, Rye, Wheat..................................... (202) 720-8068 Angie Considine - Peanuts, Rice......................................... (202) 720-7688 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet........................ (202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Hay............................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits... (202) 720-5412 Dave Losh - Hops........................................................ (360) 709-2400 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ....... (202) 720-4285 Erika White - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). 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