Cr Pr 2-2 (2-10) Crop Production Washington, D.C. Released February 9, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 3 Percent from January The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2009-10 season is 7.94 million tons, down 3 percent from the January 1 forecast and down 14 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 129 million boxes (5.81 million tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 21 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), down 4 percent from January 1 and 22 percent lower than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 63.0 million boxes (2.84 million tons), is 5 percent below the previous forecast and down 19 percent from the 2008-09 crop. Eight days of sub-freezing temperatures were recorded during the period of January 5-13, 2010. A freeze damage survey was conducted January 26-27, 2010. Additional assessments will be made through mid-March. Fruit size decreased for the early, midseason, and Navel varieties, while fruit drop increased. Fruit size has been below average for the Valencia crop all season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2009-10 season is 1.56 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 3 percent from the January 1 forecast and down 6 percent from last season's final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down 6 percent from last season's record yield of 1.60 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is expected to total 1.65 gallons per box, 6 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationship this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on February 9, 2010. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James W. Miller Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas..................................................4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit...............................................5 Lemons...................................................5 Oranges..................................................5 Tangelos.................................................5 Tangerines and Mandarins.................................5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane................................................4 Crop Comments...........................................14 Crop Summary.............................................6 Information Contacts....................................17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report...........16 Weather Maps............................................12 Weather Summary.........................................13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ----- Tons ----- --- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 384.0 372.0 32.9 36.1 12,634 13,429 HI 2/ : 20.4 19.7 69.7 71.0 1,422 1,399 LA 2/ : 380.0 390.0 28.3 31.0 10,754 12,090 TX 2/ : 37.2 39.0 35.5 35.0 1,321 1,365 : US : 821.6 820.7 31.8 34.5 26,131 28,283 : For Seed : FL : 17.0 18.0 36.5 36.3 621 653 HI 2/ : 2.4 2.0 30.0 30.0 72 60 LA 2/ : 25.0 35.0 28.3 31.0 708 1,085 TX 2/ : 2.0 2.0 35.5 35.0 71 70 : US : 46.4 57.0 31.7 32.8 1,472 1,868 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 401.0 390.0 33.1 36.1 13,255 14,082 HI 2/ : 22.8 21.7 65.5 67.2 1,494 1,459 LA 2/ : 405.0 425.0 28.3 31.0 11,462 13,175 TX 2/ : 39.2 41.0 35.5 35.0 1,392 1,435 : US : 868.0 877.7 31.8 34.4 27,603 30,151 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2009 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov : 2,420 1,975 1,450 1,320 2,745 2,500 Dec : 2,410 1,975 1,460 1,320 2,850 2,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2007-08, 2008-09 and Forecasted February 1, 2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : 2009-10 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : 2009-10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 230 150 9 5 CA 5/ : 45,000 34,500 40,000 1,688 1,294 1,500 FL : 83,500 84,600 66,000 3,758 3,807 2,970 TX 5/ : 1,600 1,300 1,310 68 55 56 US : 130,330 120,550 107,310 5,523 5,161 4,526 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 150 100 6 4 CA 5/ : 17,000 14,000 15,000 637 525 563 FL : 86,700 77,800 63,000 3,901 3,501 2,835 TX 5/ : 196 159 277 9 7 12 US : 104,046 92,059 78,277 4,553 4,037 3,410 All : AZ 4/ : 380 250 15 9 CA 5/ : 62,000 48,500 55,000 2,325 1,819 2,063 FL : 170,200 162,400 129,000 7,659 7,308 5,805 TX 5/ : 1,796 1,459 1,587 77 62 68 US : 234,376 212,609 185,587 10,076 9,198 7,936 Grapefruit : White : FL : 9,000 6,600 5,300 383 280 225 Colored : FL : 17,600 15,100 13,500 748 642 574 All : AZ 4/ : 100 25 3 1 CA 5/ : 5,200 5,600 4,200 174 188 141 FL : 26,600 21,700 18,800 1,131 922 799 TX 5/ : 6,000 5,500 5,490 240 220 220 US : 37,900 32,825 28,490 1,548 1,331 1,160 Tangerines and Manda: AZ 5/ 6/ : 400 250 350 15 9 13 CA 5/ 6/ : 6,700 6,700 8,200 251 251 308 FL : 5,500 3,850 4,000 261 183 190 US : 12,600 10,800 12,550 527 443 511 Lemons 5/ : AZ : 1,500 3,000 2,500 57 114 95 CA : 14,800 22,000 20,000 562 836 760 US : 16,300 25,000 22,500 619 950 855 Tangelos : FL : 1,500 1,150 900 68 52 41 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX and Temples in FL. 4/ Estimates discontinued beginning with the 2009-10 crop year. 5/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,567.0 3,113.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 86,482.0 79,630.0 Corn for Silage : 5,605.0 Hay, All : 59,755.0 Alfalfa : 21,227.0 All Other : 38,528.0 Oats : 3,404.0 1,379.0 Proso Millet : 350.0 293.0 Rice : 3,135.0 3,103.0 Rye : 1,241.0 252.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,633.0 5,520.0 Sorghum for Silage : 254.0 Wheat, All : 59,133.0 49,868.0 Winter : 43,311.0 37,097.0 34,485.0 Durum : 2,554.0 2,428.0 Other Spring : 13,268.0 12,955.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 827.0 814.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 317.0 314.0 Mustard Seed : 51.5 49.8 Peanuts : 1,116.0 1,081.0 Rapeseed : 1.0 0.9 Safflower : 175.0 165.5 Soybeans for Beans : 77,451.0 76,407.0 Sunflower : 2,030.0 1,953.5 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 9,149.2 7,690.5 Upland : 9,007.5 7,552.0 Amer-Pima : 141.7 138.5 Sugarbeets : 1,183.2 1,145.3 Sugarcane : 877.7 Tobacco : 354.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 20.5 13.7 Dry Edible Beans : 1,537.5 1,463.0 Dry Edible Peas : 863.3 837.9 Lentils : 415.0 407.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Hops : 39.7 Peppermint Oil : 69.8 Potatoes, All : 1,069.8 1,045.0 Winter : 9.0 8.7 Spring : 79.2 73.7 Summer : 44.5 43.0 Fall : 937.1 919.6 Spearmint Oil : 20.5 Sweet Potatoes : 109.6 97.7 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ----- 1,000 ---- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 73.0 227,323 Corn for Grain :" : 165.2 13,151,062 Corn for Silage :Tons : 19.3 108,209 Hay, All :" : 2.47 147,442 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 71,030 All Other :" : 1.98 76,412 Oats :Bu : 67.5 93,081 Proso Millet :" : 33.7 9,865 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,085 219,850 Rye :Bu : 27.8 6,993 Sorghum for Grain :" : 69.4 382,983 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 14.5 3,680 Wheat, All :Bu : 44.4 2,216,171 Winter :" : 44.2 1,522,718 Durum :" : 44.9 109,042 Other Spring :" : 45.1 584,411 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,811 1,474,130 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 4,178.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 23.6 7,423 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 991 49,364 Peanuts :" : 3,412 3,688,350 Rapeseed :" : 1,700 1,530 Safflower :" : 1,462 241,970 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 44.0 3,361,028 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,554 3,036,460 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 774 12,401.3 Upland 2/ :" : 763 12,011.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,353 390.3 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.8 29,519 Sugarcane :" : 34.4 30,151 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,325 823,290 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,328 182 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,733 25,360 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 2,045 17,137 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,440 5,859 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 874 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,270 8,000 Hops :" : 2,383 94,677.9 Peppermint Oil :" : 91 6,379 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 413 431,425 Winter :" : 245 2,132 Spring :" : 289 21,321 Summer :" : 336 14,469 Fall :" : 428 393,503 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 132 2,698 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 201 19,647 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,443,530 1,259,800 Corn for Grain 2/ :34,998,400 32,225,460 Corn for Silage : 2,268,290 Hay, All 3/ : 24,182,250 Alfalfa : 8,590,350 All Other : 15,591,900 Oats : 1,377,560 558,070 Proso Millet : 141,640 118,570 Rice : 1,268,700 1,255,750 Rye : 502,220 101,980 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,684,310 2,233,890 Sorghum for Silage : 102,790 Wheat, All 3/ :23,930,530 20,181,080 Winter :17,527,530 15,012,780 13,955,730 Durum : 1,033,580 982,590 Other Spring : 5,369,430 5,242,760 : Oilseeds : Canola : 334,680 329,420 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 128,290 127,070 Mustard Seed : 20,840 20,150 Peanuts : 451,630 437,470 Rapeseed : 400 360 Safflower : 70,820 66,980 Soybeans for Beans :31,343,650 30,921,150 Sunflower : 821,520 790,560 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 3,702,590 3,112,270 Upland : 3,645,250 3,056,220 Amer-Pima : 57,340 56,050 Sugarbeets : 478,830 463,490 Sugarcane : 355,200 Tobacco : 143,320 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,300 5,540 Dry Edible Beans : 622,210 592,060 Dry Edible Peas : 349,370 339,090 Lentils : 167,950 164,710 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Hops : 16,080 Peppermint Oil : 28,250 Potatoes, All 3/ : 432,940 422,900 Winter : 3,640 3,520 Spring : 32,050 29,830 Summer : 18,010 17,400 Fall : 379,230 372,150 Spearmint Oil : 8,300 Sweet Potatoes : 44,350 39,540 Taro (HI) 5/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.93 4,949,370 Corn for Grain : 10.37 334,052,360 Corn for Silage : 43.28 98,165,550 Hay, All 2/ : 5.53 133,757,130 Alfalfa : 7.50 64,437,330 All Other : 4.45 69,319,800 Oats : 2.42 1,351,070 Proso Millet : 1.89 223,730 Rice : 7.94 9,972,230 Rye : 1.74 177,630 Sorghum for Grain : 4.35 9,728,220 Sorghum for Silage : 32.48 3,338,440 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.99 60,314,290 Winter : 2.97 41,441,590 Durum : 3.02 2,967,640 Other Spring : 3.03 15,905,060 : Oilseeds : Canola : 2.03 668,650 Cottonseed 3/ : 3,790,220 Flaxseed : 1.48 188,550 Mustard Seed : 1.11 22,390 Peanuts : 3.82 1,673,010 Rapeseed : 1.91 690 Safflower : 1.64 109,760 Soybeans for Beans : 2.96 91,472,190 Sunflower : 1.74 1,377,320 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.87 2,700,070 Upland : 0.86 2,615,090 Amer-Pima : 1.52 84,980 Sugarbeets : 57.78 26,779,190 Sugarcane : 77.01 27,352,530 Tobacco : 2.61 373,440 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.49 8,260 Dry Edible Beans : 1.94 1,150,310 Dry Edible Peas : 2.29 777,320 Lentils : 1.61 265,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 39,640 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.42 3,630 Hops : 2.67 42,950 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 2,890 Potatoes, All 2/ : 46.27 19,569,110 Winter : 27.47 96,710 Spring : 32.43 967,100 Summer : 37.71 656,300 Fall : 47.96 17,849,000 Spearmint Oil : 0.15 1,220 Sweet Potatoes : 22.54 891,170 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2008-2010 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,548 1,331 1,160 Lemons : " : 619 950 855 Oranges : " : 10,076 9,198 7,936 Tangelos (FL) : " : 68 52 41 Tangerines and Mandarins : " : 527 443 511 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : Lbs : 9,609.3 9,953.6 Apricots : Tons : 81.6 68.3 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 17,400.0 15,400.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,319.3 7,067.6 Olives (CA) : " : 66.8 42.8 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 33,500.0 31,300.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,135.3 1,105.7 Pears : " : 869.9 936.2 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 129.0 157.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : " : 15.5 18.8 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : Lbs : 1,630,000 1,390,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : Tons : 32.0 47.0 Pecans (in-shell) : Lbs : 194,080 290,500 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : Tons : 436.0 415.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,912 2,327 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season. 2/ Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10. Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2008-2010 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,404,320 1,207,460 1,052,330 Lemons : 561,550 861,830 775,640 Oranges : 9,140,790 8,344,290 7,199,420 Tangelos (FL) : 61,690 47,170 37,190 Tangerines and Mandarins : 478,090 401,880 463,570 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,358,710 4,514,880 Apricots : 74,040 61,980 Bananas (HI) : 7,890 6,990 Grapes : 6,639,920 6,411,660 Olives (CA) : 60,600 38,830 Papayas (HI) : 15,200 14,200 Peaches : 1,029,940 1,003,090 Pears : 789,110 849,320 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 117,030 142,430 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,060 17,060 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 739,360 630,490 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 29,030 42,640 Pecans (in-shell) : 88,030 131,770 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 395,530 376,480 Maple Syrup : 9,560 11,630 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season. 2/ Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10. January Weather Summary A protracted and severe cold outbreak struck Florida's peninsula during the first half of the month, causing varying degrees of damage to citrus, sugarcane, vegetables, and specialty crops. Much of the significant damage occurred on January 6-7 and 10-12, when temperatures dipped below 20 degrees Fahrenheit in some northwestern citrus areas and fell to 32 degrees Fahrenheit or below as far south as the winter vegetable production area near Homestead, south of Miami. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal across most of Florida's peninsula, and were also below normal across the remainder of the Southeast. Below-normal temperatures were also noted in much of the western Corn Belt, where a very deep snow cover had become established during December and persisted through January. In contrast, above-normal January temperatures dominated the Nation's northern tier and much of the West. Monthly readings averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in northern New England and portions of the Northwest. At some Northwestern locations, it was the warmest January on record. Relatively dry conditions accompanied the Northwestern warmth, consistent with the maturation of a strong El Niņo. Meanwhile, a barrage of mid- to late-month storms struck areas from California to the southern Plains, more than doubling the water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack and improving water-supply prospects throughout the Nation's southwestern quadrant. Across the Nation's midsection, short-term dryness on the central Plains contrasted with wetter than normal conditions on the northern and southern Plains. On the northern Plains, snow helped to protect winter wheat from a variety of weather extremes. On the southern Plains, several episodes of wintry precipitation caused travel disruptions but aided pastures and winter grains. Farther north and east, wintry weather added to already impressive snow depths in the western Corn Belt. In contrast, relatively dry conditions prevailed in the eastern Corn Belt, another signal consistent with a strong, mature El Niņo. Elsewhere, frequent precipitation maintained unfavorably soggy conditions from Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida into the southern Mid-Atlantic States. The Southeastern wetness hampered fieldwork, including final summer crop harvest efforts, and left standing water in some winter wheat fields. However, heavy rain largely bypassed southern Florida and the central Gulf Coast region. January Agricultural Summary With the exception of the Great Lakes and New England, January temperatures were below normal east of the Great Plains. The mercury plunged to as many as 6 degrees below normal in portions of the Southeast, with recordings across much of Florida's peninsula falling to 8 degrees below normal. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and the Rocky Mountains experienced warmer than normal temperatures, with recordings reaching 8 degrees above average across the eastern halves of Oregon and Washington. Precipitation totals varied dramatically from one region to another. Strong winter storms delivered above average rain and snowfall to much of the Southwest, Texas, and northern Great Plains where monthly accumulations totaled as much as 400 percent of normal. Elsewhere, large portions of the Rocky Mountains, Corn Belt, Delta, and New England were abnormally dry. Isolated locations in Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming received as little as 2 percent of their normal monthly precipitation. Producers in several States were busy cultivating, fertilizing, and irrigating fields in preparation for spring planting. Cotton harvest in Texas and Arizona was complete by mid-month, while fruit, nut, and vegetable growers harvested their crops throughout January. An arctic cold front delivered several nights of subfreezing temperatures to Florida early in the month. Freeze damage reduced strawberry production, and completely ruined some snap bean, squash, and tomato fields. Young sugarcane acreage was burned back, while the tops of the older crop were frozen. As a result, producers have been rapidly harvesting their cane fields to help limit the loss of sucrose content. A wave of storm systems provided favorable soil moisture to developing small grain crops in California, Oklahoma, and Texas. Conversely, excessively wet fields coupled with below average temperatures in Florida and Georgia hampered seed germination, emergence, and crop growth in winter wheat. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2009 is forecast at 30.2 million tons, of which 28.3 million tons will be utilized for sugar and 1.87 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is down fractionally from the previous forecast but up 9 percent from 2008. Sugarcane producers are expecting to harvest 877,700 acres for sugar and seed in 2009, unchanged from January but up 1 percent from last year. Yield for sugar and seed is estimated at 34.4 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from the previous forecast but up 2.6 tons from 2008. Production in Florida is forecast at 14.1 million tons, down 1 percent from January but up 6 percent from 2008. Freezing temperatures mid-month negatively impacted the sugarcane crop in the Everglades region of Florida. As a result, yield is forecast at 36.1 tons per acre, a decrease of 0.3 ton from the previous forecast. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2009-10 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.16 million tons, down 3 percent from the January 1 forecast and down 13 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 18.8 million boxes (799,000 tons), down 4 percent from the January 1 forecast and 13 percent below last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.30 million boxes (225,000 tons), down 4 percent from January and down 20 percent from the previous year. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 13.5 million boxes (574,000 tons), is down 4 percent from the January 1 forecast and 11 percent lower than last season. The decrease is due to a slowing of the grapefruit growth rate. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 511,000 tons, down 6 percent from the January 1 forecast but 15 percent above the 2008-09 crop. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.00 million boxes (190,000 tons), down 15 percent from the January 1 forecast but up 4 percent from the previous season. Harvest of the later maturing Honey variety is well underway and fruit size measurements are down. Arizona and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 900,000 boxes (41,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but down 22 percent from last season's final production. If realized, this will be the smallest tangelo crop since 1962, when Florida had a damaging December freeze. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.65 million pounds for December 2009, up 6 percent from November but 7 percent lower than a year ago. Total crop area for December is estimated at 1,975 acres, unchanged from November but 18 percent below December 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,320 acres, unchanged from the previous month but 10 percent lower than last year. Warm, dry weather in December aided fruit development and ripening. Florida Citrus: The citrus region experienced several nights of low temperatures during the first half of January. Weather stations reported high temperatures in the 30's and 40's. In an attempt to protect the fruit and limit crop losses, grove caretakers irrigated heavily and accelerated harvest. Temperatures returned to a 70 to 80 degree range by mid-January. Harvesting of early, midseason, and Navel oranges neared completion while Valencia harvest was just getting started. All of the processing plants had opened and were mainly receiving early and midseason oranges and grapefruit. Primary grove activities were irrigating and harvesting. California Citrus: During the first half of January picking of tangerines, navel oranges, and grapefruit continued in the Central Valley. The lemon harvest continued in both the desert region and Central Valley. Citrus fruit harvest slowed significantly in mid-January due to storms moving through the Central Valley and desert region. The Valencia orange crop continued to develop well. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Pruning and pre-emergent spraying occurred in grape vineyards. Dormant sprays to control pests were applied in prune and peach orchards. Pruning continued in nut orchards, while herbicide applications to berms also took place in almond and walnut orchards. During the middle of January most maintenance work in vineyards and orchards was suspended or slowed due to heavy rains and strong winds throughout central and southern California. Some fallen almond trees were reported. Honeybees were shipped in from other States and hives were placed in almond orchards for the upcoming pollination season. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.8 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.8 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent, or 5.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 335,000 tons (309,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 655,000 tons (18,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Lance Honig, Chief............................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Jacqueline Moore, Head........................................(202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice................................(202) 720-7688 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings.......................(202) 720-5944 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats, Sorghum.............................(202) 690-3234 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed..............(202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye.....................................(202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops.............(202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..........(202) 720-7369 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head.....................................(202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries........................................(202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco...............................................(202) 720-4288 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts.....................................................(202) 720-4215 Steve Maliszewski - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits...(202) 720-5412 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes....................................(202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans...............................(202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops............................................(360) 902-1940 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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