Pr Rc 2 (3-08) Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 28, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Price Reactions After USDA Livestock Reports" call Scott Hollis at (202) 720-3570, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. This report contains price reactions to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Cattle on Feed, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, and Milk Production reports. The USDA Cattle on Feed report is released monthly and publishes on-feed inventory, fed cattle marketings, and feeder cattle placements. Annual average price reactions to the Cattle on Feed reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Market News reports. The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are published each year in March, June, September, and December and provide data on hog and pig inventory, sows farrowing, pig crop estimates, and 3-month and 6-month farrowing intentions. Annual average price reactions to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports are provided in this publication using prices data from the AMS Market News reports. The AMS prices used in this report for cattle and hogs represent sales from producers to first buyers at major markets. The price reaction to the Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports is indicated by the difference between the price the week prior and the week after each report. The Milk Production report is released monthly and provides data on the number of milk cows, milk per cow and total milk production for the 23 major milk producing States. Dairy products price reactions to the USDA Milk Production reports are also provided in this publication. The butter and cheddar cheese prices in this publication are based on the daily cash settlement prices reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Weekly average prices are computed for the week before and the week after the release of each Milk Production report. Annual Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1997 : 5 1.30 7 0.79 5 1.19 7 0.74 1998 : 6 1.53 6 1.20 3 0.98 9 1.12 1999 : 9 0.73 3 1.11 5 0.38 7 0.50 2000 : 8 0.76 4 0.69 7 0.78 5 1.08 2001 : 5 0.84 7 1.78 5 1.87 7 1.47 2002 : 9 1.24 3 1.40 5 1.14 7 1.68 2003 : 5 3.73 7 2.41 5 1.90 7 3.24 2004 : 9 1.73 3 1.85 5 4.07 7 1.83 2005 : 2 1.65 10 1.43 5 1.01 7 1.28 2006 : 9 0.96 3 1.26 7 1.76 5 1.61 2007 : 5 0.78 7 1.36 8 1.67 4 1.51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Southern Minnesota. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price does not change. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Cattle Price Reactions to Cattle on Feed Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 26, 2007: 1 86.80 86.39 87.84 -0.41 1.45 Feb 23, 2007: -3 90.59 90.64 93.59 0.05 2.95 Mar 23, 2007: -4 98.33 97.22 95.81 -1.11 -1.41 Apr 20, 2007: -1 98.44 96.06 96.28 -2.38 0.22 May 18, 2007: -2 97.10 97.55 94.58 0.45 -2.97 Jun 22, 2007: 1 89.69 86.67 85.77 -3.02 -0.90 Jul 20, 2007: -1 90.32 89.63 90.70 -0.69 1.07 Aug 17, 2007: -5 90.45 90.25 92.67 -0.20 2.42 Sep 21, 2007: -6 92.49 93.78 95.52 1.29 1.74 Oct 19, 2007: -4 91.90 93.26 92.51 1.36 -0.75 Nov 16, 2007: -2 92.01 92.76 95.10 0.75 2.34 Dec 21, 2007: 1 92.63 90.95 92.14 -1.68 1.19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on the weekly weighted average prices per cwt. for live steers and heifers from feedlots in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, and Southern Minnesota. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ 2/ 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 4/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 1997 : 2 2.42 2 1.59 4 0.76 0 0.00 1998 : 1 0.50 3 0.96 1 1.26 3 1.67 1999 : 4 2.52 0 0.00 2 2.37 2 3.64 2000 : 2 1.70 2 1.31 3 1.98 1 2.97 2001 : 0 0.00 4 0.57 1 1.31 3 0.68 2002 : 3 0.79 1 0.89 3 1.15 1 2.92 2003 : 1 1.24 3 2.66 0 0.00 4 1.13 2004 : 3 2.13 1 0.28 1 0.12 3 2.33 2005 : 3 0.38 1 1.85 1 6.56 3 1.05 2006 : 0 0.00 4 2.52 1 3.15 3 1.10 2007 : 2 1.85 2 2.87 1 1.45 3 2.78 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Barrows and Gilts, 5 markets combined. 2/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota starting in December 1998 to April 2001. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 3/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price starting April 2001. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 4/ Marketing year represents December of the previous year through November of current year. Quarterly Hog Price Reactions to Hogs and Pigs Releases, 2006-2007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Inventory : Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date :Change 2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Mar 31, 2006: 1.1 40.80 39.24 39.18 -1.56 -0.06 Jun 30, 2006: 1.6 59.30 54.44 51.59 -4.86 -2.85 Sep 30, 2006: 1.7 48.14 45.33 48.48 -2.81 3.15 Dec 27, 2006: 1.7 41.74 44.53 40.70 2.79 -3.83 : Mar 30, 2007: 2.5 42.42 43.33 44.78 0.91 1.45 Jun 29, 2007: 3.7 56.14 53.68 51.04 -2.46 -2.64 Sep 28, 2007: 6.5 46.86 43.58 41.70 -3.28 -1.88 Dec 27, 2007: 7.2 38.19 36.91 35.83 -1.28 -1.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Slaughter Hogs, Iowa, Southern Minnesota base lean prices, converted to live price. Source: Market News, Agriculture Marketing Service. 2/ Change from previous year. Annual Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing : : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2003 : 7 0.0329 5 0.0172 5 0.0092 7 0.0264 2004 : 8 0.0895 4 0.1170 4 0.0119 7 0.0837 2005 : 6 0.0408 5 0.0260 4 0.0340 8 0.0319 2006 : 7 0.0105 5 0.0139 3 0.0348 8 0.0292 2007 : 5 0.0220 7 0.0171 7 0.0228 5 0.0135 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Butter Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :-----------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2007 : 2.5 1.2060 1.2181 1.2475 -0.0121 -0.0294 Feb 16, 2007 : 1.1 1.2265 1.2135 1.2100 0.0130 0.0035 Mar 16, 2007 : 0.4 1.3345 1.3150 1.3145 0.0195 0.0005 Apr 18, 2007 : 0.9 1.3645 1.3780 1.3975 -0.0135 -0.0195 May 18, 2007 : 1.3 1.4720 1.4925 1.4995 -0.0205 -0.0070 Jun 18, 2007 : 0.8 1.4790 1.4880 1.4890 -0.0090 -0.0010 Jul 18, 2007 : 0.9 1.4720 1.4960 1.5065 -0.0240 -0.0105 Aug 17, 2007 : 3.8 1.4910 1.4270 1.4020 0.0640 0.0250 Sep 18, 2007 : 3.4 1.3935 1.3820 1.3240 0.0115 0.0580 Oct 18, 2007 : 2.6 1.2863 1.3000 1.2900 -0.0137 0.0100 Nov 16, 2007 : 3.6 1.3520 1.3785 1.3742 -0.0265 0.0043 Dec 18, 2007 : 3.3 1.3320 1.3300 1.2717 0.0020 0.0583 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash butter prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2003 : 5 0.0180 6 0.0264 3 0.0303 9 0.0176 2004 : 7 0.0879 4 0.0949 8 0.0461 3 0.0547 2005 : 8 0.0563 4 0.0389 9 0.0324 3 0.0550 2006 : 8 0.0337 4 0.0116 6 0.0118 5 0.0323 2007 : 6 0.0904 6 0.0260 3 0.0458 9 0.0462 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Barrel Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2007 : 2.5 1.3365 1.3244 1.3245 0.0121 -0.0001 Feb 16, 2007 : 1.1 1.3730 1.2920 1.3363 0.0810 -0.0443 Mar 16, 2007 : 0.4 1.3815 1.3630 1.3990 0.0185 -0.0360 Apr 18, 2007 : 0.9 1.4145 1.4495 1.4930 -0.0350 -0.0435 May 18, 2007 : 1.3 1.6240 1.6660 1.7510 -0.0420 -0.0850 Jun 18, 2007 : 0.8 2.0000 2.0195 1.9920 -0.0195 0.0275 Jul 18, 2007 : 0.9 1.9260 1.9090 1.8405 0.0170 0.0685 Aug 17, 2007 : 3.8 1.8865 1.8900 1.9255 -0.0035 -0.0355 Sep 18, 2007 : 3.4 2.0890 1.9295 1.8880 0.1595 0.0415 Oct 18, 2007 : 2.6 1.8625 1.8735 1.8885 -0.0110 -0.0150 Nov 16, 2007 : 3.6 1.9640 2.0090 2.0600 -0.0450 -0.0510 Dec 18, 2007 : 3.3 2.1015 1.8475 1.9533 0.2540 -0.1058 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 500 pound barrel cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. Annual Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of and Average Price Changes 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Week Prior to Release : Week After Release :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Increases : Decreases : Increases : Decreases :--------------------------------------------------------------- Marketing: : : : : : : : Year 2/ :Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average:Number :Average -------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars : 2003 : 3 0.0267 5 0.0206 5 0.0151 3 0.0395 2004 : 7 0.1004 3 0.1313 7 0.0488 4 0.0788 2005 : 8 0.0471 4 0.0290 8 0.0437 4 0.0424 2006 : 8 0.0288 2 0.0183 7 0.0116 5 0.0360 2007 : 6 0.0769 6 0.0379 3 0.0532 9 0.0565 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. Total increases and decreases may not add to twelve for a year when the week-to-week price is unchanged. 2/ Marketing year represents the January-December calendar year. Monthly Block Cheddar Cheese Price Reactions to Milk Production Releases ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Average Price 1/ : : : :------------------------------: : : : : : : Change From : : : : :------------------- : : : : : Week : Week of : : : : :Before to: Release Release :Production: Week : Week of : Week : Week of : to Week Date : Change2/ : Prior : Release : After : Release : After ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------------------- Dollars ------------------- : Jan 18, 2007 : 2.5 1.3270 1.2988 1.3040 0.0282 -0.0052 Feb 16, 2007 : 1.1 1.3495 1.3225 1.3450 0.0270 -0.0225 Mar 16, 2007 : 0.4 1.3800 1.3555 1.3980 0.0245 -0.0425 Apr 18, 2007 : 0.9 1.4230 1.4540 1.5255 -0.0310 -0.0715 May 18, 2007 : 1.3 1.6805 1.7010 1.7610 -0.0205 -0.0600 Jun 18, 2007 : 0.8 1.9920 2.0655 2.0315 -0.0735 0.0340 Jul 18, 2007 : 0.9 1.9520 1.9275 1.8505 0.0245 0.0770 Aug 17, 2007 : 3.8 1.9255 1.9480 1.9680 -0.0225 -0.0200 Sep 18, 2007 : 3.4 2.1010 1.9085 1.8600 0.1925 0.0485 Oct 18, 2007 : 2.6 1.8438 1.8565 1.9025 -0.0128 -0.0460 Nov 16, 2007 : 3.6 2.0320 2.0990 2.1833 -0.0670 -0.0843 Dec 18, 2007 : 3.3 2.0135 1.8490 2.0050 0.1645 -0.1560 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices based on the simple average of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange daily closing cash 40 pound block cheddar cheese prices during the week. 2/ Percent change from previous year. 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