[NASS Agency Information: About NASS]

The Estimating Programs

Crops
Livestock
County Estimates
Chemical Use
Labor
Farms and Land in Farms
Price, Costs, and Returns
Estimate Revisions
To prepare its reports, NASS collects information from several sources, of which the sample surveys are the most important. Statisticians then interpret the information to prepare estimates and forecasts.


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Crops

The crop estimating program reports on farmers' planting intentions, estimates of acreage actually planted and expected to be harvested, and forecasts of yield and production during the growing season. After the crops have been harvested, estimates of harvested acreage, yield, and production are made. During the marketing year, on- and off-farm stocks estimates are determined for the major crops. Each January, NASS publishes two reports summarizing production and values for major crops over the past 3 years.

Through the mid-year and other quarterly probability surveys, information is collected on acreage, yield, production, and grain stocks on farms. Surveys conducted between quarters are used to gather information on crop conditions and yields; off-farm grain stocks are also measured.


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Livestock

The estimating program for livestock measures several major categories of this sector: inventory numbers and value, breeding intentions, production, slaughter, feeding operations, and cold storage holdings.

As with the crops program, livestock, dairy, and poultry estimates are based largely on probability surveys. However, near-total counts are made for some items, such as slaughter, cold storage, hatching data, and specialty items. Data are collected through mail surveys as well as face-to-face and telephone interviews.


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County Estimates

All county estimates are the result of data collection programs through cooperative agreements. The success of these agreements is due in large part to the county estimates program: States are willing to cooperate with NASS in exchange for data that describe their agricultural economies at the county or district (multi-county) level. These can include crops particularly important to the State and local economies.

The many sectors that make up the agriculture industry depend on county estimates when pinpointing production shifts and concentrations, determining sales areas and markets, and locating new processing plants. The county estimates are much more current than those of the only other source of county data, the Census of Agriculture; this substantially increases their usefulness.

Crop county estimates are relied on heavily by government agencies as well. The Federal Crop Insurance Corporation counts on them to calculate premiums and loss payments, and the Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service relies on them as one of the factors in determining crop program payments. State governments use them to administer some of their programs, and to assess the relative importance of agriculture to the total cash receipts of their counties.

Through the SSO's, individual States carry out their own livestock county estimating programs, generally focusing on sectors of the industry most commercially significant to the State -- beef or dairy cattle, hogs, broilers, catfish, and so forth. The type of information quantified at the county level also varies among States; one State may estimate milk production (including number of cows and production per cow), while another may estimate only the number of dairy cows.

Most county estimates are prepared from surveys mailed to a large sample. The samples for these surveys accomplish several important things. Many respondents are included in the sample from one year to the next, so that year-to-year changes can be measured. Farm operation changes detected in the county estimates program are used to update the list frame. Most operators in the sample have not been surveyed earlier in the year, so the individual operator's response burden is minimized.

The current system for county estimates merges the procedures and data with those of other surveys (cattle, sheep, and quarterly agricultural surveys, to name a few). This approach helps to distribute the larger operations within the county estimates, thereby strengthening their validity. The county estimates are also employed in weighting other NASS reports back to the districts to ensure that the reports from a particular district are accorded their proper weight, or significance; those districts with the highest acreage, for instance, receive the greatest weights.


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Chemical Use

In 1989, NASS began surveying the use of pesticides and commercial fertilizers on farms in support of the President's Water Quality Initiative and USDA's Food Safety Initiative. Statistics on field crops are published each year, while information on either fruits or vegetables is released in alternate years.

Before the program was instituted, statistically reliable and readily available information on the amount and types of chemicals used in agriculture was quite limited. Consequently, neither USDA nor other concerned parties could respond adequately to questions of agricultural chemical use and its possible effects on food safety and water quality.

The chemical use database is proving an invaluable tool to Federal agencies in assessing the benefits and risks of pesticide use, and to State agencies in determining how well actual agricultural practices accord with environmental quality standards. Moreover, the database is essential to the sound evaluation of existing and proposed programs and policies that could affect food production, consumer prices, and farm income.


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Labor

Multiple frame sample surveys are used to collect data on the number and types of agricultural workers and weekly wage rates. These data series are generally compatible with employment and wage series constructed by other Federal agencies.

The total agricultural work force includes self-employed workers, unpaid workers, and hired employees. Hired workers are classified by the principal type of work they do -- field, livestock, supervisory, or other activities.

Farms and Land in Farm

Each summer, NASS issues a report showing numbers of farms and land in farms by State. These estimates reflect data collected in the midyear survey, available State farm censuses, and the Census of Agriculture.


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Prices, Costs, and Returns

Each month, NASS estimates the prices farmers receive for certain agricultural commodities. The estimates reflect sales of all classes and grades of each commodity and are used to compute cash receipts and value of production. Those who administer Federal farm programs use the series to determine grain price deficiency payments and establish grain loan levels.

Prices paid for production inputs (fuel, electricity, seeds, pesticides, fertilizers, and so forth) are collected quarterly from merchants and dealers selling to farmers and ranchers. The data are used to determine the index of prices paid, an indicator of changes in production costs caused by fluctuations in prices.

Index, price, and expenditure data provide the core of information used to determine farm income, costs of production, and the general economic vigor of U.S. agriculture. The series plays a critical role in the decisions and actions of agricultural policy makers in the public and private sectors.

The farm costs and returns survey (FCRS) reflects the overall condition of the U.S. agricultural economy, and Congress and other government officials rely on its results when making policy decisions. This integrated, multiple frame survey is conducted each year to obtain detailed information about production expenses and practices, farm income, finances, costs of production, and other characteristics of farms and ranches throughout the Nation. NASS shifts the focus of the survey from one year to the next to collect extensive cost-of-production data for specific types of enterprises; the survey will concentrate on corn or wheat one year, and on beef or broilers the next.


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Estimate Revisions

Estimates are revised periodically to provide a better foundation for current and future estimates. Revisions are made when sufficient data become available to check the accuracy of the original estimates. For example, end-of-year estimates of livestock inventories are compared with records of livestock slaughtered under Federal inspection and other data in the following year; if necessary, the original estimates are revised. Similarly, additional data about crops after harvest may mean production estimates have to be adjusted. Estimates are re-evaluated and revised to determine the most accurate benchmark against which to weigh current survey data: new data must be compared with accurate historical data to produce the most reliable estimates.


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Send comments and questions to: NASS Customer Service at nass@nass.usda.gov or Phone the National Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540.
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