AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $56.5 BILLION FOR 1997
                                              Release No. 0062.97

                                      Tom Amontree (202) 720-4623
                                  Joel Greene      (202) 219-0816

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $56.5 BILLION FOR 1997

     WASHINGTON, Feb. 24, 1997-- Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman today
announced that the value of U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 1997 is
forecast at $56.5 billion, up $1 billion from the previous forecast in
December and second only to the fiscal 1996 record of $59.8 billion.

     "These continued strong export numbers reflect the Administration's
commitment to fighting for open markets and aggressively promoting U.S.
agricultural goods in world markets," Glickman said. 

     The new forecast reflects actual shipments to date and substantially
changed prospects since December.  Stronger than expected export volume and
prices of soybeans and cotton will more than offset reduced prospects for
wheat and livestock exports.  Forecast exports of U.S. oilseeds (and oilseed
products) and cotton are up $800 million and $500 million from December
to $10.7 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively.  The increases are based
primarily on heavy shipments to China, the European Union, and Mexico.

     Forecast exports of wheat and corn, which set the pace for last year's
record export value, were lowered from the December projection and are down
considerably from fiscal 1996 due to increased world supplies and lower
prices.  Argentina and Australia have probably harvested  their largest wheat
crops on record, while U.S. corn faces greater than expected production and
export competition from Argentina and China.  Prospects for rice exports have
brightened, however, with a $100-million rise from December to $1 billion,
about the same as last year.  Rice export volume was raised 100,000 tons due
mainly to increased Latin American and EU demand for long grain rice.
 
     Although the forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. livestock, dairy,
and poultry products was reduced $200 million from December, it remains a
record $12.2 billion.  If the slowdown in beef sales to Japan continues,
however, recent annual increases in U.S. red meat sales to Japan cannot be
sustained in 1997.  The pace of Japan's beef imports from all countries
has slowed following consumer concerns over food safety issues.

     U.S. agricultural export volume is now forecast at 145.4 million metric
tons, down slightly from the December forecast and off 8 percent from fiscal
1996.  Export volume peaked in fiscal 1995 at 169.7 million tons.

     U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at a record $34 billion in fiscal
1997, leaving the agricultural trade surplus (exports minus imports) at $22.5
billion.  The expected surplus is up $1 billion from December, but below last
year's all time high of $27.4 billion.  A strong U.S. dollar and lower import
prices have raised import volume.  In addition, rising coffee prices stemming
from uncertain supplies in South America have added $200 million to the
projected import value.  Coffee imports are now expected to make up 9 percent
of the U.S. import bill at $3.1 billion. 

     While exports of bulk commodities such as oilseeds and cotton have
spurred recent gains in the trade outlook, exports of high-valued products,
including meats, fruits, and vegetables, remain strong.  In addition to record
sales of U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry products, the value of
horticultural exports--fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts--is forecast up 5
percent from fiscal 1996 to a record $10.5 billion.  Driving the projected
growth in horticultural exports are a continued sales recovery to Mexico and
steady growth in key Asian and Pacific Rim countries, Latin American
countries, and Canada. 

     Projected exports to Mexico, the European Union, and China posted the
largest increases from December, primarily reflecting heightened demand for
U.S. soybeans and cotton.  U.S. exports to Mexico were raised $400 million
from December and $500 million from fiscal 1996 to $5.5 billion.  Although
Mexico will import more soybeans and cotton, much of the gain is expected to
be in high-value products.  Exports to the EU were pushed up $200 million to
$9 billion, approaching last year's figure.  China's purchases are expected to
reach $2 billion, following a first-quarter surge of 52 percent from a year
earlier.  Strong demand for soybeans and improved prospects for cotton account
for much of the expected gain, but increased imports of meat and horticultural
products have also boosted U.S. exports to China.  

     USDA estimates that U.S. agricultural exports continue to generate more
than $100 billion annually  in U.S. business activity.  Workers and consumers 
in all 50 states benefit from strong exports, which support thousands of
off-farm jobs in processing, manufacturing, marketing, and transportation.

     The U.S. Department of Agriculture's revised trade forecast for fiscal
1997, which began last October 1, was released today by USDA's Economic
Research Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, and the World Agricultural
Outlook Board.
                                
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