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Long-Term Agricultural Projections

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections are a departmental consensus on a longrun representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. 

The World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs an Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee to coordinate this activity and improve the quality and consistency of projections.

Early-Release Tables from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025

The USDA will release the complete USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025 report in February 2016.  The complete report will include not only the tables below, but also a full discussion of the commodity supply and use projections, as well as projections for global commodity trade. 

The Agricultural Act of 2014 is assumed to be extended and remain in effect through the projection period. The projections reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared during October through December 2015.

The projections use as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 10, 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. 

U.S. macroeconomic assumptions
Global real GDP growth assumptions
Population growth assumptions
Acreage for major field crops and Conservation Reserve Program assumptions
U.S. feed grains
U.S. wheat
U.S. rice
U.S. soybeans and products
U.S. upland cotton
U.S. sugar
Livestock
Dairy

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024

This report, the most recent, was released in February, 2015.

PDF

Microsoft Word

Excel (Albert R. Mann Library, Cornell University)

Long-Term Projections Process

Background on USDA's long-term projections and past issues of the report are available at the ERS Web site.

Contact Paul Westcott (westcott@ers.usda.gov) or David Stallings (dstallings@oce.usda.gov) for further information.