2007 Outlook Forum

USDA, Office of the Chief Economist

		March 1-2, 2007 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel 1700 Jefferson Davis Highway Arlington, Virginia 22202
	Agriculture at the Crossroads — Energy, Farm & Rural Policy

	“Federal investment in agriculture is a very wise, thoughtful investment. How we do it is the critical issue. At the end, I believe strongly it must be predictable, equitable, and beyond challenge." Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns

	Plenary Session and Webcast March 1, 2007 Welcome Chuck Conner, Deputy Secretary of Agriculture, USDA Webcast Transcript 2007 International Agricultural Trade Outlook A. Ellen Terpstra, Deputy Under Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services, USDA Webcast PDF DOC 2007 Agricultural Economic Outlook Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA Webcast DOC PDF Keynote Address Mike Johanns, Secretary of Agriculture, USDA Webcast Transcript Distinguished Guest Speaker Allan Hubbard, Assistant to the President for Economic Policy Director, National Economic Council Webcast PDF DOC Plenary Panel Renewable Energy – Inroads to Agriculture Moderator: Scott Kilman, Wall Street Journal DOC Patricia Woertz, President and Chief Executive Officer, Archer Daniels, Midland Webcast DOC John Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer, CHS, Inc. Webcast DOC Greg Page, President and Chief Operating Officer, Cargill, Inc. Webcast DOC Red Cavaney, President and Chief Executive Officer, American Petroleum Institute Webcast DOC

	Speeches and Presentations Speeches and PowerPoint presentations are posted in PDF format. The Forum presented 35 sessions, beginning on the afternoon of March 1, which were organized into five theme tracks: Rural America, Globalization, Conservation, Science, and Markets. The traditional sessions also presented the outlook for major U.S. commodities.

	March 1, 2007 1:15 p.m. - 1:45 p.m. Food Price Outlook: Ephraim Leibtag, Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA, Washington, DC PDF 1:45 p.m.-3:15 p.m. Energy Biofuels: Overview & Potential for U.S. Markets Moderator: Lloyd C. Day, Administrator, Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA The U.S. Potential for Biofuels Robert Dinneen, President, Renewable Fuels Association PDF Tradeoffs in Production, Pricing, and Cropping Patterns Henry L. Bryant, Research Assistant Professor, Texas A & M University PDF The Role of Cellulosic Conversion Bruce E. Dale, Professor, Michigan State University PDF Biobutanol: A New Entrant in the Biofuels Market William A. Frey, Global Business Director for Biofuels, DuPont Bio-Based Materials PDF Rural Development Making Rural Towns More Viable: A Look at Broadband, Healthcare & Community Facilities Moderator: Thomas Dorr, Under Secretary for Rural Development, USDA PDF How Broadband Can Help Rural Communities Scott Zimmer, President, Air Advantage PDF Expanding Health Care Options in Rural America Margo Harrison, CEO, Clark Fork Valley Hospital PDF Community Facilities Make a Critical Difference George Kornegay, President, Mt. Olive College Foundation PDF DOC Policy & Trade The DOHA Round: Closing the Perception Gap Moderator: James Grueff, Partner, Decision Leaders LLC Agricultural Exports With or Without an Agreement William C. Motes, Senior Vice President, Informa Economics DOC Litigation or Negotiation? The Perceived Value of Dispute Settlement for the U.S. Farm Sector in 2006 Timothy Josling, Professor Emeritus at the Food Research Institute, Stanford University PDF Growing Trade with Developing Countries – The Interdependency William Cline, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Center for Global Development PDF DOC Technology Conservation Agriculture, Precision Agriculture, and Carbon Sequestration Potential Moderator: Randy Raper, Lead Scientist for Conservation Systems, Agricultural Research Service, Soil Dynamics Lab, USDA Soil Considerations Across the Landscape Hector J. Causarano, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, Agricultural Research Service, USDA PDF Agronomic Inputs Using Precision Agriculture Across Different Landscapes Kip Balkcom, Conservation Systems Research, Agricultural Research Service, USDA PDF Precision Agriculture Economic Benefits in Transitioning Into No-till on Different Landscapes Jason Bergtold, Conservation Systems Research, Agricultural Research Service, USDA PDF Increasing Carbon Sequestration by Reducing Tillage Ron Reicosky, North Central Soil Conservation Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, USDA PDF Food Trends Labeling & Health Claims: Future of Food Marketing Moderator: Fred Kuchler, Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA The Federal Government and Nutrition Marketing Richard A. Williams, Director for Social Science, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, U.S. Food and Drug Administration PDF Nutrition Marketing and Consumer Behavior Brian Wansink, Professor of Marketing, Applied Economics and Nutritional Science, Cornell Food and Brand Lab, Cornell University Not Available Private Sector Research in Nutrition Marketing Eileen Kennedy, Dean, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University PDF Concurrent Sessions 3:45 p.m.-5:15 p.m. Energy Biofuels: Market Integration and Farm Policy Moderator: Roger Conway, Director, Office of Energy Policy and New Uses, Office of the Chief Economist, USDA A Discussion of Integrating Biofuels Into the Fuels Industry Kevin Lindemer, Executive Managing Director, Energy Markets Group, Global Insight Not Available Leveling the Policy Framework Between Crops and Biomass Daryll Ray, Professor, University of Tennessee PDF The Current Policy Framework for Biofuels: What Is Needed? Elizabeth Paris, Senate Finance Committee Not Available The Current Policy Framework for Biofuels: What Is Needed: From Growers’ & Producers’ Perspectives? Samantha Slater, Renewable Fuels Association PDF Rural Development The Impact of Immigration on the Agricultural Labor Market Moderator: Susan Offutt, Chief Economist, Government Accountability Office Immigrants in U.S. Agriculture: A Demographic Overview William Kandel, Farm and Rural Household Well-Being Branch Economic Research Service, USDA PDF Immigration Reform, Crop Agriculture, and Meat Processing Philip Martin, Chair, UC Comparative Immigration & Integration Program, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California PDF Immigration and Agriculture: Perspective From Mexico Francisco Mere Palafox, Director General, Fideicomisos Instituidos en Relacion a la Agricultura (FIRA), Banco de Mexico DOC Immigration and Agriculture: Industry Perspective Craig J. Regelbrugge, Senior Director of Government Relations, American Nursery and Landscape Association DOC Policy & Trade Alternatives to Risk Management Policies Moderator: Keith Collins, Chief Economist, USDA Federal Crop Insurance and Farm Programs ─ Will WTO or Budget Concerns Shape the Debate? Keith Coble, Department of Agriculture Economics, Mississippi State University PDF DOC Arguments for Whole-Farm Revenue Approach to Farm Programs Bruce Babcock, Iowa State University PDF View From the Outside Roger Bernard, News Editor, Pro Farmer DOC Economist World Perspectives Dave Juday, Senior Economist, World Perspectives, Inc. PDF Science & Technology Cell Wall & Other Routes to Bio-energy Products Moderator: Kay Walker Simmons, National Program Leader, General Biological Science & Plant Genetics and Grain Crops, Agricultural Research Service, USDA Switchgrass and Other Promising Biofuel Materials Kenneth Vogel, Supervisory Research Geneticist, Grain, Forage and Bioenergy Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, USDA PDF U.S. – E.U. Joint Cell Wall Project Sara Hake, Director, Plant Gene Expression Center, Agricultural Research Service, USDA PDF Commercialization Opportunities Chris Somerville, Department of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford University PDF Food Trends Income, Profitability & Financial Well-Being in the Farm Sector Moderator: John C. Moore, Jr., Chief Economist, Office of Policy and Analysis, Farm Credit Administration Income Outlook for U.S. Farms and the Farm Economy in 2007 James Johnson, Chief, Farm and Rural Business Branch, Economic Research Service, USDA PDF Co-author of Presentation: Mitch Morehart, Senior Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA DOC An Examination of Farm Income and Factors for Plains Agriculture Samuel M. Funk, Agricultural Policy Specialist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University PDF Outlook for Farm Household Well-Being Carol Jones, Chief, Farm and Rural Household Well-Being Branch, Economic Research Service, USDA PDF

	Outlook Forum Dinner 21st Century Economic Development A Renewed Focus on Agriculture Honorable Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana DOC
	March 2, 2007 Commodity Outlooks USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Dennis Shields, Agricultural Economist, Farm Service Agency, USDA PDF DOC USDA Cotton Outlook Carol Skelly, Fibers Analyst, World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA DOC Outlook for Livestock & Poultry Industry Shayle Shagam, Livestock, Poultry & Dairy Analyst, World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA PDF Outlook for Dairy Industry Milton Madison, Senior Economist, Dairy and Sweeteners Analysis Group, Farm Service Agency, USDA DOC Sugar Outlook John M. Love, Sugar, Specialty Crops, and Lumber Analyst, World Board, USDA PDF

	March 2, 2007 Concurrent Sessions 8:00 a.m.-9:30 a.m. Grains & Oilseeds Industry Outlook Moderator: William Lapp, Advanced Economic Solutions USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Dennis Shields, Agricultural Economist, Farm Service Agency, USDA PDF DOC Pricing Issues Related to Funds Lonn Taffel, Cadent Financial Services LLC PDF Can Corn Yields Fuel Ethanol Expansion? Robert T. Fraley,Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Monsanto PDF Rural Development Community Financing of Biofuel Plants Moderator: Jack Gleason, Administrator, Rural Business-Cooperative Programs, Rural Development, USDA Mid-Missouri Energy Ryland Utlaut, President, Mid-Missouri Energy PDF What Local Ownership Means to Rural America John M. Urbanchuk, Director, LECG LLC DOC The Banker’s Perspective Tom Houser, CoBank PDF Policy & Trade U.S. Farm Bill: USDA Perspective Moderator: Arlen Lancaster, Chief, Natural Resources Conservation Service, USDA USDA Perspective Mark Keenum, Under Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services, USDA PDF Thomas Dorr, Under Secretary for Rural Development, USDA PDF Bruce Knight, Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, USDA PDF Mark Rey, Under Secretary for Natural Resources and Environment, USDA Not Available Science & Technology Enhancing Productivity and Security With Genetic Diversity Moderator: Andrew W. LaVigne, President and CEO, American Seed Trade Association Overview of Agricultural Research Service Seed & Germplasm Research Perry Cregan, Research Leader, Soybean Genomics and Improvement Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, USDA PDF Partnering With the Academic Community Paul Gepts, Department of Agronomy and Range Science, University of California PDF Genetic Resources: Vital Software for Food, Health, and Security J. Stephen Smith, Pioneer Hi-Bred International Inc., DuPont Agriculture and Nutrition PDF Commodities Transitioning into Common Sweetener Market with Mexico Moderator: Barbara Fecso, Economist, Dairy and Sweeteners Analysis Group, Farm Service Agency, USDA A Primer in NAFTA John M. Melle, Deputy Assistant USTR for North America Not Available An Analyst’s Perspective of the Transition John Cropley, LMC Worldwide PDF A Processor’s Perspective of the Transition Jim Horvath, President, American Crystal Corporation PDF The Role of the Private Sector in Transitioning into a Common Sweetener Market Paul Farmer, CSC Sugar LLC DOC PDF Concurrent Sessions 10:00 a.m.-11:30 a.m. Energy Biofuels: International Developments Moderator:Mike Yost, Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA EU Biofuels Policy and Effects on Production, Consumption and Trade of Agricultural Products Hilkka Summa, Head of Unit F6 (Bioenergy, Biomass, Forestry and Climate Change), European Commission PDF Brazilian Production of Biofuels: Implications for World Trade Elisio Contini, Head of Management Strategy, Brazil Ministry of Agriculture PDF Biofuels Policies in Asia: Trade Effects on World Agricultural and Biofuels Trade Keiji Ohga, Professor, College of Bioresource Sciences, Nihon University DOC PDF Rural Development Cotton Industry & Outlook Moderator: John Johnson, Deputy Administrator for Farm Programs, Farm Service Agency, USDA USDA Cotton Outlook Carol Skelly, Fibers Analyst, World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA DOC Progress and Problems in Estimating China's Cotton Supply and Demand Stephen MacDonald, Senior Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA PDF DOC Factors Affecting Shifts in Cotton Area in the U.S. Mid-South John R. C. Robinson, Associate Professor & Extension Economist, Cotton Marketing and Risk Management, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University PDF Moving U.S. Cotton from Loan to Market in the Post Step 2 Era John D. Mitchell, Vice President, Cargill Cotton PDF Policy & Trade U.S. Farm Bill: Outside Perspective - Modernizing America’s Farm & Food Policy Moderator: Bruce Gardner, Distinguished University Professor, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Maryland Howard Vincent, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pheasants Forever Inc. PDF Bob Stallman, President, American Farm Bureau Federation PDF Ralph Grossi, President, American Farmland Trust PDF Stephanie Mercier, Economist, Senate Agriculture Committee PDF Science & Technology The Role of International Standards in Facilitating Safe Trade: Scientific Justification in a Resource - Scarce World Moderator: Bruce Knight, Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, USDA PDF The Role of International Standards and Their Impacts on Data Needs John Hedley, Principal Adviser, International Coordination - Plants, Biosecurity, New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry PDF Harmonizing Standards and the Role of Trade Negotiations Dr. Luis Osvaldo Barcos, Representacion regional de la OIE para las Americas, World Organization for Animal Health PDF Impact of International Standards on Streamlining the Regulatory Process David McNamara, Former Assistant Director, European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization PDF Topic To Be Announced Catherine Adams, Vice President for Global Food Quality, McDonald’s Corporation PDF Commodity Livestock & Poultry Industry Outlook Moderator: Gregg Doud, Chief Economist, National Cattlemen's Beef Association Outlook for Livestock & Poultry Industry Shayle Shagam, Livestock, Poultry & Dairy Analyst, World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA DOC Ethanol Production: Implications for Poultry Feeding Amy B. Batal, Poultry Nutritionist, University of Georgia PDF Fueling Ethanol: Implications for Livestock Producers John D. Lawrence, Extension Livestock Economist, Director, Iowa Beef Center, Iowa State University PDF Luncheons 12:00 a.m. -1:15 p.m. Grains & Oilseeds Luncheon Moderator: Rich Feltes, Director of Research, Man Financial Inc. Open Markets, Economic Growth and Prosperity Al Ambrose, CHS Inc., Vice President, Risk Management, Oilseed Processing PDF Horticulture Luncheon Outlook for Florida Citrus Industry Moderator: Burton Eller, Deputy Under Secretary, Marketing and Regulatory Programs, USDA Challenges Facing the Florida Citrus Industry Mike Sparks, Executive Vice President, CEO, Florida Citrus Mutual PDF Cotton Luncheon Moderator: Neal Gillen, Executive Vice President and General Counsel, American Cotton Shippers Association Developments in Commodity Futures Markets Herman Kohlmeyer, Jr., Senior Vice President, Investments, A.G. Edwards Not Available Livestock & Poultry Luncheon Moderator: Richard Raymond, Under Secretary for Food Safety, USDA The Global Perspective on Avian Influenza Ambassador John E. Lange, Special Representative on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, Department of State PDF DOC Sugar & Sweeteners Luncheon Moderator: Barbara Fecso, Economist, Dairy and Sweeteners Analysis Group, Farm Service Agency, USDA Prospects of an Open Sweetener Market Between the United States and Mexico Francois D. Nehama, Director of Trade, Sucden Americas Corp PDF Concurrent Sessions 1:30 p.m. -3:00 p.m. Energy Fueling America with Wind, Solar & Methane Energy Moderator: James Andrew, Administrator, Rural Utilities Programs, Rural Development, USDA Wind Power Tom Wind, Wind Utility Consulting PDF Solar Power Scott Sklar, Executive Director of Solar Industries PDF Methane Power Kurt Roos, AgSTAR Program Manager, Environmental Protection Agency PDF Rural Development Dairy Industry Outlook Moderator: John Mengel, Chief Economist, Dairy Programs, Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA Outlook for Dairy Industry Milton Madison, Senior Economist, Dairy and Sweeteners Analysis Group, Farm Service Agency, USDA DOC Developments in World Skim Powder Markets Rick Walker, Vice President, Trade Policy & Government Relations, Fronterra Co-operative Group Ltd. PDF Opportunities for Whey Markets James J. Page, Chief Executive Officer, American Dairy Products Institute PDF Policy & Trade Water Quality Trading Markets: Wave of the Future Moderator: Jon Scholl, Counselor to the Administrator for Agricultural Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Water Quality Trading Basics Ginny Kibler, USEPA, Office of Wastewater Management, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency PDF USDA Farm Bill Conservation - Supply Side of Trading Carl Lucero, National Leader for Clean Water, Natural Resources Conservation Service, USDA PDF Water Trading – Producer Perspective Tom Spellmire, Producer, Warren County, Ohio Not Available Science & Technology Public & Private Innovations to Control Foodborne Pathogens Moderator: Tanya Roberts, Agricultural Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA Continuous Food Safety Innovation as a Management Strategy: Public Perspective Daniel Engeljohn, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Food Safety & Inspection Service, USDA PDF Continuous Food Safety Innovation as a Management Strategy: Private Perspective Mike Robach, Vice President, Corporate Food Safety & Regulatory Affairs, Cargill, Incorporated PDF Lessons from Sweden’s Control of Salmonella and Campylobacter in Broilers Johan Lindblad, Director, The Swedish Poultry Meat Association PDF Food Trends Technology, Information & Competition in Retail Food Markets Moderator: Phillip R. Kaufman, Senior Economist, Food Markets Branch, Economic Research Service, USDA Understanding the Consumer Through Technology: Scanner Data, Consumer Panels, and Analysis Ephraim Leibtag, Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA PDF Future Directions in Consumer-based Marketing and Promotion: Micro-level Promotion and Price Optimization Technology Jon Hauptman, Willard Bishop Consulting PDF Energy Cost-Cutting Technology: Creating Efficiencies in the Retail Operation Michael Sansolo, Senior Vice President, Food Marketing Institute Not Available

Last Modified: 03/15/2007


	Plenary Webcast
	Plenary Speeches
	Plenary Panel Speeches
	Commodity Outlooks
	Thursday p.m. Speeches
	Thursday Dinner Speech
	Friday a.m. Speeches
	Commodity Luncheon Speeches
	Friday p.m. Speeches