Reports and Journal Articles
This page provides a list of economic reports produced by OCE economists over the past five years and published by USDA or in external journals.
Working Papers
Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under Coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings From an Econometric Assessment: This paper provides a comprehensive ex post quantitative assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on food and agricultural trade. It develops a monthly reduced form, gravity-based model of bilateral agricultural and non-agricultural trade and econometrically assesses different dimensions of the global pandemic effect. Report link. (PDF, 1.4 MB)
Agricultural and Food Policy Response to COVID-19: This working paper provides an overview of the major emergency actions taken to address food and agriculture needs during the pandemic. The paper focuses primarily on the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program, a direct payment program to producers administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and highlights its uniquely broad-based scope. Report link (PDF, 307 KB)
The Impact of Coronavirus COVID-19 on U.S. Meat and Livestock Markets: This working paper assesses the COVID-19-related disruptions to meat and livestock markets in the United States. It provides a data-based description of the COVID-19 impact, including the shutdown of the food service sector, costs associated with packing plants’ efforts to move product across supply chains, and meatpacking plant closings. March 15, 2021. Report link (PDF, 397 KB)
Agricultural Productivity, Food Prices, and Consumer Food Expenditures Long-Run Trends and Short-Run Movements. This paper examines agricultural productivity growth and its relationship to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and income, commodity prices, retail food prices, and domestic and international consumer food expenditures. The last portion of the paper examines how food prices and expenditures react in the short run to a massive shock to the economy and to the agricultural sector – specifically, coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. November 4, 2020. Report link (PDF, 1.4 MB)
White Papers
Update of 2019 FSA Acreage Data and FAQs on USDA Acreage: The paper describes how Farm Service Agency reported acreage differs from survey acreage from the National Agricultural Statistics Service and provides information prevented acreage. August 27, 2020. Report link
Trade Damage Estimation for the 2019 Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program. This paper outlines the methodology USDA employed to estimate the level of gross trade damage caused by retaliatory tariffs to U.S. agricultural exports by commodity. Those estimates were used to determine the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payment rates and the value of commodities to be targeted for purchase under the 2019 Food Purchase and Distribution Program (FPDP). The paper also outlines the formulas employed to calculate MFP county rates for non-specialty crops, as well as national MFP rates for specialty crops, hogs, and milk. August 22, 2019. Report link
Trade Damage Estimation for the Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program. This paper outlines the methodology USDA employed to estimate the level of gross trade damage caused by retaliatory tariffs to U.S. agricultural exports by commodity. Those estimates were used to determine the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payment rates and the value of commodities to be purchased under the Food Purchase and Distribution Program (FPDP). September 13, 2018. Report link
Agricultural Provisions of The U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement and USDA Trade Forecasts. This paper provides an overview of the agricultural provisions of the U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement and discusses how those provisions will be reflected in upcoming USDA commodity trade forecasts. February 6, 2020.. Report link (PDF, 945 KB)
Why Trade Agreements Matter: The Case for U.S. Dairy. This report examines changes in U.S. and global dairy markets and quantifies benefits to U.S. dairy from free trade agreements. October 2016. Report link (PDF, 1.2 MB)
Reports to Congress
USDA Report to House and Senate Committees on Appropriations and Agriculture, October 31, 2019. This report provides analysis of the impacts of retaliatory tariffs and nontariff barriers on U.S. agriculture, as well as data on the Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program for 2018 and 2019. Report link (PDF, 1.9 MB)
USDA Report to Congress, April 2015. Economic Analysis of Country of Origin Labeling (COOL). As required by Sec. 12104 of the Agricultural Act of 2014, this report provides an economic analysis of the impact on U.S. consumers, producers, and packers from the implementation of mandatory country of origin labeling. Report link (PDF, 2.0 MB)
Journal Articles, FarmDoc Blogs
Agricultural Markets and Trade
Grant, J., Arita, S., Xie, C., and Sydow, S. 2023. “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: The War’s Initial Impacts on Agricultural Trade.” Choices. Article link
Zilberman, D., Cooper, J., Hochman, G., Reardon, T., and Shoemaker, S. 2023. “Understanding Supply Chains Is Crucial for Good Agricultural Policy.” Choices, Fall 2023. Article link
Adjemian, M.K., Arita, S., Meyer, S., and Salin, D. 2023. “Factors Affecting Recent Food Price Inflation in the United States.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Article link
A. Swanson, S. Arita, and J. Cooper. November/December 2024. “Controversies Surrounding U.S. Imports of Used Cooking Oil for Biofuel Production,” ARE Update, Vol. 28/2. Article link:
Grant, J., Arita, S., Emlinger, C., Sydow, S., & Marchant, M. A. 2019. “The 2018–2019 Trade Conflict: A One-Year Assessment and Impacts on US Agricultural Exports,” Choices, 34(316-2020-227), 1-8. Article link
Hawkins, H., Arita, S., and Meyer, S. 2024. “Proposition 12 Pork Retail Price Impacts on California Consumers.” ARE Update 27(3): 5–8. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Article llnk
Adjemian, M.K., Arita, S., Breneman, V., Johansson, R., and Williams, R. 2019. “Tariff Retaliation Weakened the US Soybean Basis,” Choices, 34(316-2020-229), pp.1-9. Article link
Hahn, W., S. Sydow, and W. Preston. 2019. “Revisiting U.S. country of origin labeling trade damage estimates: how does an equilibrium displacement model perform under different scenarios,” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67, pp. 349-361. Article link
Arita, S., Beckman, J. and Mitchell, L. 2017. “Reducing transatlantic barriers on US-EU agri-food trade: What are the possible gains?” Food Policy, 68, pp.233-247. Article link
Hawkins, H., Arita, S., and Meyer, S. 2024. “Proposition 12 Reported Compliant Volumes and Wholesale and Non-Carcass Premiums.” ARE Update 27(3): 9–11. University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Article link
P. Westhoff, J. Whistance, J. Cooper, and S. Meyer. 2023. “Impacts of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on U.S. Agriculture,” Choices Vol. 32/2. Article link
COVID-19 Impacts on Food Systems
McLaughlin, P. W., Stevens, A., Arita, S., and Dong, X. 2023. “Stocking Up and Stocking Out: Food Retail Stock‐Outs, Consumer Demand, and Prices During the COVID‐19 Pandemic in 2020.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Report Link
Cooper, J., Breneman, V., Ma, M., Lusk, J. L., Maples, J. G., and Arita, S. 2023. “Econometric Assessment of the Effects of COVID-19 Outbreaks on US Meat Production and Plant Utilization with Plant-Level Data.” Food Policy. Article link (PDF, 1.4 MB)
Joseph V. Balagtas, Joseph Cooper, and Mary A. Marchant. 2021. “Theme Overview: Agricultural Market Response to COVID-19,” Choices, Vol. 36/3. Article link
Joseph V. Balagtas and Joseph Cooper. 2021. “The Impact of COVID-19 on United States Meat and Livestock Markets,” Choices, Vol. 36/3. Article link.
Joseph Balagtas, Joseph Cooper, Patrick McLaughlin, and Fei Qin. 2023. “Consumer Demand for Food at Home and Food Away from Home: Understanding Economic Linkages During the Pandemic,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 45:1604-1617. Article link (PDF, 2 MB)
Agricultural Production and Economics
A. Swanson, S. Arita, J. Cooper, and S. Meyer. December 19, 2024. “Secondary Impacts from Rising Used Cooking Oil Demand on Crop-Oil Prices,” Farmdoc Daily (14):230. Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Article link
Arita, S., Breneman, V., Meyer, S., and Rippey, B. 2023. “Low Mississippi River Barge Disruptions: Effects on Grain Barge Movement, Basis, and Fertilizer Prices.” farmdoc daily 12 (164). Article link
Villoria, N. B., Arita, S., and Sydow, S. 2024. “The Roles of Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation.” Environmental Research: Food Systems 1(2), 022002. Article link
Steinbach, S., Arita, S., Meyer, S., and Sydow, S. 2024. “How California’s New Locomotive Regulation Could Impact Midwest Agriculture.” farmdoc daily 14(121). Article link
Saitone, T. L., Schaefer, K. A., Scheitrum, D., Arita, S., Breneman, V., Nemec Boehm, R., and Maples, J. G. 2024. “Consolidation and Concentration in US Meat Processing: Updated Measures Using Plant-Level Data.” Review of Industrial Organization 64(1), 35-56. Article llnk
Marette, S., A-C. Disdier, A. Bodnar, and J. Beghin. 2022. “New plant engineering techniques, R&D investment and international trade.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 00:1–20. Article link
MacLachlan, M.J., D. Boussios, and A.D. Hagerman. 2022. “Market Responses to Export Restrictions from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 47(1):209–224. Article link (PDF, 1.7 MB)
DeLay, N.D., B. Brewer, A. Featherstone, and D. Boussios. 2022. “The impact of crop insurance on farm financial outcomes.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Article link (PDF, 2.0 MB)
Enowski, H., S. Gerlt, A. Hungerford. September, 2020. "How Do Adverse Planting Conditions Affect Crop Insurance Payment Timing?" farmdoc daily (10):159. Article link
Adjemian, M., S. Arita, V. Breneman, A. Hungerford, and R. Johansson. October 2019. "Market Reaction to USDA’s August Corn Crop Reports." farmdoc daily (9):186. Article link
Chavas, J.P., J. Cooper, and S. Wallander. “The Impact of Input and Output Decisions on Agricultural Production Risk,” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 44/3 (2019):513–535. Article link
Belasco, E., J. Cooper, and V. Smith. “The Development of a Weather-based Crop Disaster Program,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol. 102/1(August 2019):240-258. Article link
Mishra, A. and J. Cooper. “Impact of Farm Programs on Farm Households in the US,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 39 (2017): 387-409. Article link
Cooper, A. J., Nam Tran, and S. Wallander. “Testing for Specification Bias with a Flexible Fourier Transform Model for Crop Yields,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol. 99/3 (April 2017): 800-815. Article link
Todd, J.E., L. Mancino, B. Restrepo, C. Kavanaugh, C. Dicken, and V. Breneman. September 2020. “Food Away From Home and Caloric Intake: The Role of Restaurant Menu Labeling Laws,” Economic Inquiry. Early View. Article link
Beckman, J. and Arita, S. 2017. “Modeling the interplay between sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff-rate quotas under partial trade liberalization,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(4), pp.1078-1095. Article link
Metin Çakır, Ana M. Pérez, Shawn Arita, Joseph Cooper, and Rebecca Nemec Boehm. November 2024. “Perspectives on High U.S. Retail Food Prices During 2020–2022,” Food Policy 129(3). Article link
Hungerford, A., S. Arita, and R. Johansson. October 2019. "Examining USDA 2019 Acreage and Yield Estimates." farmdoc daily (9):185, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Article link
Belasco, E.J. and A. Hungerford. December 2018. “Examining the Design and Use of the Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) Program.” Western Economic Forum 16(2). Article link
F. Tsiboe, J.B. Tack, K. Coble, A. Harri, and J. Cooper. 2023. “Simulating Corn Futures Market Reaction and Prices Under Weekly Yield Forecasts,” Agricultural Finance Review, Vol. 83 No. 4/5, pp. 655-674. Article link (PDF, 4.7 MB)
Barnes, M.L., Arita, S., Kalberg, K., and Leung, P. 2017. “When does it pay to cooperate? Strategic information exchange in the harvest of common-pool fishery resources,” Ecological Economics, 131, pp.1-11. Article link
Gerlt, S., W. Thompson, R. Johansson, and S. Sydow. July 2016. “Now That It’s 2016, Let’s Compare 2014 Farm Bill Programs to the 2008 Farm Bill,” farmdoc daily (6):128. Article ink
