USDA’s long-term agricultural projections are a departmental consensus on a long-run representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. These projections are issued every year in February.
Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for long-term global economic growth, agricultural production, consumption, and trade; and U.S. exports of major farm commodities and future price movements. The projections can also be used to analyze impacts of alternative policy scenarios.
The World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs an Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee that develops the projections. Other agencies involved with the long-term projections analysis and review include the Economic Research Service; the Farm Service Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture. The Economic Research Service has the lead role in preparing the USDA long-term projections report.
Background on USDA's long-term projections and past issues of the report are available at the ERS Web site.
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