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Reports and Journal Articles

This page provides a list of economic reports produced by OCE economists over the past five years and published by USDA or in external journals.

Working Papers

Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under Coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings From an Econometric Assessment: This paper provides a comprehensive ex post quantitative assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on food and agricultural trade. It develops a monthly reduced form, gravity-based model of bilateral agricultural and non-agricultural trade and econometrically assesses different dimensions of the global pandemic effect.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Covid19-and-Trade-OCEworkingpaper-USDA.pdf (PDF, 1.4 MB)

Agricultural and Food Policy Response to COVID-19: This working paper provides an overview of the major emergency actions taken to address food and agriculture needs during the pandemic. The paper focuses primarily on the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program, a direct payment program to producers administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and highlights its uniquely broad-based scope.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Hungerford-COVID-USDA.pdf (PDF, 307 KB)

The Impact of Coronavirus COVID-19 on U.S. Meat and Livestock Markets: This working paper assesses the COVID-19-related disruptions to meat and livestock markets in the United States. It provides a data-based description of the COVID-19 impact, including the shutdown of the food service sector, costs associated with packing plants’ efforts to move product across supply chains, and meatpacking plant closings. March 15, 2021.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/covid-impact-livestock-markets.pdf (PDF, 397 KB)

Agricultural Productivity, Food Prices, and Consumer Food Expenditures Long-Run Trends and Short-Run Movements. This paper examines agricultural productivity growth and its relationship to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and income, commodity prices, retail food prices, and domestic and international consumer food expenditures. The last portion of the paper examines how food prices and expenditures react in the short run to a massive shock to the economy and to the agricultural sector – specifically, coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. November 4, 2020.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/food-expenditures-white-paper.pdf (PDF, 1.4 MB)

White Papers

Update of 2019 FSA Acreage Data and FAQs on USDA Acreage: The paper describes how Farm Service Agency reported acreage differs from survey acreage from the National Agricultural Statistics Service and provides information prevented acreage. August 27, 2020.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/NASSandFSAacreage_08222019.pdf

Trade Damage Estimation for the 2019 Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program. This paper outlines the methodology USDA employed to estimate the level of gross trade damage caused by retaliatory tariffs to U.S. agricultural exports by commodity. Those estimates were used to determine the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payment rates and the value of commodities to be targeted for purchase under the 2019 Food Purchase and Distribution Program (FPDP). The paper also outlines the formulas employed to calculate MFP county rates for non-specialty crops, as well as national MFP rates for specialty crops, hogs, and milk. August 22, 2019.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USDA_Trade_Methodology_Report_2019.pdf

Trade Damage Estimation for the Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program. This paper outlines the methodology USDA employed to estimate the level of gross trade damage caused by retaliatory tariffs to U.S. agricultural exports by commodity. Those estimates were used to determine the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payment rates and the value of commodities to be purchased under the Food Purchase and Distribution Program (FPDP). September 13, 2018. 
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USDA_Trade_Methodology_Report_2018.pdf

Agricultural Provisions of The U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement and USDA Trade Forecasts. This paper provides an overview of the agricultural provisions of the U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement and discusses how those provisions will be reflected in upcoming USDA commodity trade forecasts. February 6, 2020.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/usda-trade-forecasts-us-china-agreement.pdf (PDF, 945 KB)

Why Trade Agreements Matter: The Case for U.S. Dairy. This report examines changes in U.S. and global dairy markets and quantifies benefits to U.S. dairy from free trade agreements. October 2016.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/US-Dairy-and-Free-Trade-Agreements.pdf (PDF, 1.2 MB)


Reports to Congress

USDA Report to House and Senate Committees on Appropriations and Agriculture, October 31, 2019.  This report provides analysis of the impacts of retaliatory tariffs and nontariff barriers on U.S. agriculture, as well as data on the Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program for 2018 and 2019.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/MFP-Report-to-Congress-October-2019.pdf (PDF, 1.9 MB)

USDA Report to Congress, April 2015. Economic Analysis of Country of Origin Labeling (COOL). As required by Sec. 12104 of the Agricultural Act of 2014, this report provides an economic analysis of the impact on U.S. consumers, producers, and packers from the implementation of mandatory country of origin labeling.
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Attachment1USDACOOLReport2015.pdf (PDF, 2.0 MB)


Journal Articles, FarmDoc Blogs

Enowski, H., S. Gerlt, A. Hungerford. September,2020. "How Do Adverse Planting Conditions Affect Crop Insurance Payment Timing?." farmdoc daily (10):159.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/09/how-do-adverse-planting-conditions-affect-crop-insurance-payment-timing.html

Adjemian, M., S. Arita, V. Breneman, A. Hungerford and R. Johansson. October 2019.  "Market Reaction to USDA’s August Corn Crop Reports." farmdoc daily (9):186.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/10/market-reaction-to-usda-august-corn-crop-reports.html

Hungerford, A., S. Arita and R. Johansson.  October 2019. "Examining USDA 2019 Acreage and Yield Estimates." farmdoc daily (9):185, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/10/examining-usda-2019-acreage-and-yield-estimates.html

Belasco, E.J. and  A. Hungerford. December 2018. “Examining the Design and Use of the Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) Program.” Western Economic Forum. 16(2).
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/287307/files/Belasco.pdf

Chavas, J.P., J. Cooper, and S. Wallander. “The Impact of Input and Output Decisions on Agricultural Production Risk”, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 44/3 (2019):513–535.
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/292329/files/JARE%2C44.3%2CSept2019%2C%234%2CChavas%2C513-535.pdf

Belasco, E., J. Cooper, and V. Smith. “The Development of a Weather-based Crop Disaster Program”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol. 102/1(August 2019):240-258.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1093/ajae/aaz021?casa_token=EE95QPsqg34AAAAA:D4ibYipZ43q2gMjvkoUWUIStNBIvBkKL2U48tClu9-UXKmRTv9N-c8uSqfCdWKSfb4_HkStHwh-dBg

Mishra, A. and J. Cooper. “Impact of Farm programs on Farm Households in the US”, J. of Policy Modeling, 39 (2017): 387-409.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893817300388?casa_token=wnjmulhmACcAAAAA:MYIP9ShbzQrbBRWKitcfO6Ar4P3JqSpfRl0iyvjltWz51kBmm9l53BQOPxIBq9ySquchLWjyzw

Cooper, A. J., Nam Tran, S. Wallander. “Testing for Specification Bias with a Flexible Fourier Transform Model for Crop Yields”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics Vol. 99/3 (April 2017): 800-815.
https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article/99/3/800/2418164

Todd, J.E., L. Mancino, B. Restrepo, C. Kavanaugh, C. Dicken, V. Breneman.  September,2020. “Food Away From Home and Caloric Intake: The Role of Restaurant Menu Labeling Laws” Economic Inquiry.  Early View 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12923

Adjemian, M.K., Arita, S., Breneman, V., Johansson, R. and Williams, R., 2019. Tariff Retaliation Weakened the US Soybean Basis. Choices34(316-2020-229), pp.1-9.
https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/tariff-retaliation-weakened-the-us-soybean-basis

Grant, J., Arita, S., Emlinger, C., Sydow, S., & Marchant, M. A. 2019. The 2018–2019 Trade Conflict: A One-Year Assessment and Impacts on US Agricultural Exports. Choices34(316-2020-227), 1-8.
https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/the-economic-impacts-of-trade-retaliation-on-us-agriculture-a-one-year-review/the-20182019-trade-conflict-a-one-year-assessment-and-impacts-on-us-agricultural-exports

Beckman, J. and Arita, S., 2017. Modeling the interplay between sanitary and phytosanitary measures and tariff-rate quotas under partial trade liberalization. American Journal of Agricultural Economics99(4), pp.1078-1095.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaw056

Barnes, M.L., Arita, S., Kalberg, K. and Leung, P., 2017. When does it pay to cooperate? Strategic information exchange in the harvest of common-pool fishery resources. Ecological Economics131, pp.1-11.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800915306844

Arita, S., Beckman, J. and Mitchell, L., 2017. Reducing transatlantic barriers on US-EU agri-food trade: What are the possible gains?. Food Policy68, pp.233-247.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.12.006

Hahn, W., S. Sydow, and W. Preston. 2019. Revisiting U.S. country of origin labeling trade damage estimates: how does an equilibrium displacement model perform under different scenarios. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67, pp. 349-361.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/cjag.12215

Gerlt, S., W. Thompson, R. Johansson, and S. Sydow. July 2016. “Now That It’s 2016, Let’s Compare 2014 Farm Bill Programs to the 2008 Farm Bill.” farmdoc daily (6):128.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/fdd080716.pdf


Other Reports

Peterson, E., Grant J., and Sydow, S. 2017. Evaluating the Trade Impacts of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Using Historical Simulations. Center of Agricultural Trade, Virginia Tech University.
https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/bitstream/handle/10919/88020/CAT-OCE-BSE-FinalReport-10-17.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Grant, J., X. Ning, and E. Peterson. 2018. Trade Elasticities and Trade Disputes: New Evidence from Tariffs and Relative Preference Margins.
https://aaec.vt.edu/content/dam/aaec_vt_edu/tradecenter/research-reports/CATT-RR-2018-07.pdf

Hejazi, M., J. Grant, and E. Peterson. 2018. Hidden Trade Costs? Maximum Residue Limits and U.S. Exports of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables.
https://aaec.vt.edu/content/dam/aaec_vt_edu/tradecenter/research-reports/CATT-RR-2018-06.pdf

Ning, X. and J. Grant. 2019. New Estimates of the Ad valorem Equivalent of SPS Measures: Evidence from Specific Trade Concerns.
https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/bitstream/handle/10919/95217/CAT%20Research%20Report-October%202019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Grant, J. and S. Arita. 2017. Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary Measures: Assessment, Measurement, and Impact. IATRC Commissioned Paper CP-21.
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/259417