international food security assessment

In 2019, 19.3 percent of the 3.8 billion people in 76 low- and middle-income countries are projected to be food insecure, meaning they do not have access to sufficient food for an active and healthy lifestyle. By 2029, their food security situation is projected to improve, leaving 9.2 percent food insecure (assuming rising per-capita incomes, stable or declining food prices, and no new major crises).

In 2018, 21 percent of the 3.7 billion people in 76 low- and middle-income countries do not have access to sufficient food for an active and healthy life, i.e. not food secure. However, by 2028, only 10 percent of the projected 4.3 billion people in these countries will be food insecure.

Across the globe, how are low- and middle-income countries faring in the ability to feed their populations? The International Food Security Assessment, released annually by the Economic Research Service (ERS), is the only report to provide a 10-year projection of food security in these countries. Since the 1980s, ERS has been conducting research and reporting on food security in countries most likely to face food security challenges.

To assess countries’ food security, ERS uses two key determinants: domestic food production and import capacity. In countries where domestic food production accounts for a large share of consumption (many in Sub Saharan Africa and Asia), increasing output of staple crops is crucial to improving food security. By comparison, in countries that rely on imports for a large share of their food supplies (many in North Africa and Latin America), the capacity to pay for imports is more important.

The Economic Research Service (ERS) has, since the late 1970s, reported annually on food security in a number of developing countries. A key indicator is the number of food-insecure people (those who each consume less than a nutritional target of 2,100 calories per day). In the latest report, we estimate food security in 76 countries, in four regions.