world agricultural outlook board

It’s a new year at USDA, at least for those of us forecasting agricultural commodity markets. Every May, the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) in the Office of the Chief Economist releases USDA’s initial projections of the markets for the crops and livestock that will be produced and harvested in the new crop year. WAOB develops USDA’s official forecasts by coordinating Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) to compile the latest and most comprehensive information and intelligence available from across USDA agencies. On May 10, USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report with these estimates for the 2019/20 crop year. The report also includes updated information on the 2018/19 and previous marketing years, but the early assessment of the “new crop” is a focal point of the May report.

Each year, agricultural experts from around the world gather in Paris to crunch numbers, analyze trends, and produce a 10-year global agriculture outlook report. I was among those analysts, and today, we unveiled our collective efforts in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027.

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly report providing a global look at the markets for key agricultural products. The many users include agricultural commodity traders, agricultural producers, processors, retailers and consumers, input suppliers, livestock and dairy feeders, and researchers interested in global agricultural markets. The market uses the WASDE report as a common understanding of current conditions under which many take actions to position themselves or make future plans based on the current global supply and demand situation.

Since its inception nearly 100 years ago, USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum has provided analysis of the farm economy, including the short- and long-term outlook for agricultural commodity markets. Producing credible and reliable information about supply and demand conditions for all the major crop and livestock markets, along with the implications for prices, production and trade, is a year-round process that relies on expertise from dozens of highly-trained analysts spread across several USDA agencies, including USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

USDA’s Chief Economist Joseph Glauber and his staff advise the Secretary on economic issues but are also charged with producing official USDA supply and demand projections and forecasts.  The Office of the Chief Economist’s (OCE’s) monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report that is  recognized globally as the benchmark report for world agricultural commodity markets.  The WASDE report provides valuable planning and decision-making information to U.S. farmers, commodity traders, the agricultural industry, and USDA policymakers.