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Baseline Projections

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections are a departmental consensus on a long-run representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. These projections are issued every year, usually in February. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for long-term global economic growth, agricultural production, consumption, and trade; and U.S. exports of major farm commodities and future price movements.

The World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs the interagency committee that develops the projections and is responsible for the review and clearance of the report. The Economic Research Service coordinates input to the economic models behind the analysis and drafts the text of the report. Other agencies involved in the long-term projections analysis and review process include the Farm Production and Conservation Business Center; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; and the Risk Management Agency.

For more information on USDA's long-term projections, visit the ERS Web site.

Early-Release Tables from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030

The USDA released the U.S. focused portion of the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030 report in November 2020, with the complete report due to be released in February 2021. The November release only includes the tables below.

The Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 is assumed to be extended and remain in effect through the projection period. The projections reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared during August through October 2020.

U.S. Livestock projections to 2030: On November 20, 2020, the Livestock tables posted below and the Agricultural Baseline Database were updated to correct errors in the file “U.S. Livestock projections to 2030.” The categories of supply, use, and price data were revised for variables in all animal product categories. No other files were affected by these errors.

U.S. Feed Grains projections to 2030: On November 20, 2020, the Feed Grains Tables posted below and the Agricultural Baseline Database were updated to correct errors in the file “U.S. Feed Grains projections to 2030.” A correction was made to the category of domestic use for sorghum, which did not properly aggregate data for the 2 categories of domestic use. No other data or files were affected by these errors.

The projections use as a starting point the short-term forecasts from the October 9, 2020 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

U.S. macroeconomic assumptions (XLS, 41 KB)
Global real GDP growth assumptions (XLS, 389 KB)
Population growth assumptions (XLS, 46.5 KB)
Acreage for major U.S. field crops and Conservation Reserve Program assumptions (XLS, 56.5 KB)
U.S. feed grains (XLS, 74.5 KB)
U.S. wheat (XLS, 43 KB)
U.S. rice (XLS, 66.5 KB)
U.S. soybeans and products (XLS, 53.5 KB)
U.S. upland cotton (XLS, 57 KB)
U.S. sugar (XLS, 37.5 KB)
U.S. livestock (XLS, 116 KB)
U.S. dairy (XLS, 39.5 KB)
 

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029

This report was released on February 14, 2020. PDF
Previously released Excel tables (ZIP, 424 KB) (zipped)
Projections Database

Baseline Visualization

Tables from current and previous Baseline reports are available on the report archive on the Mann Library website.
Previous reports are available on the Baseline Report page on the ERS website.

Long-Term Projections Process

Background on USDA's long-term projections and process are available on the ERS Website.

Contact Erik Dohlman, James Hansen, or David Boussios for further information.