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Baseline Projections

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections are a departmental consensus on a long-run representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. These projections are released annually, in two sets of tables. The U.S. projection tables are usually released in November, following the October WASDE. Projections on international markets, global macroeconomic conditions, and the U.S. farm economy are published in February with the full report which details and explains the entire projections. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for long-term global economic growth, agricultural production, consumption, and trade; and U.S. exports of major farm commodities and future price movements.

The World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs the interagency committee that develops the projections and is responsible for the review and clearance of the report. The Economic Research Service coordinates input to the economic models behind the analysis and drafts the text of the report. Other agencies involved in the long-term projections analysis and review process include the Farm Production and Conservation Business Center; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; and the Risk Management Agency.

For more information on USDA's long-term projections, visit the ERS Web site.

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031

This report was released on February 16, 2022. PDF (PDF, 1.1 MB)1
Complete set of projection tables Excel tables (ZIP, 429 KB) (zipped)
Projections Database

Baseline Visualization

Tables from current and previous Baseline reports are available on the report archive

on the Mann Library website.
Previous reports are available on the Baseline Report page on the ERS website.

Long-Term Projections Process

Background on USDA's long-term projections and process are available on the ERS Website.

Contact Erik Dohlman, James Hansen, or David Boussios for further information.

1On February 25, 2022, the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2031 report (OCE-2022-01) was revised to correct the text of the report to state that soybean oil use for biofuels is projected at 12.15 billion pounds in 2031/32. No other data or files were affected by this error.