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Baseline Projections

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections are a departmental consensus on a long-run representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. These projections are issued every year, usually in February. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for long-term global economic growth, agricultural production, consumption, and trade; and U.S. exports of major farm commodities and future price movements.

The World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs the interagency committee that develops the projections and is responsible for the review and clearance of the report. The Economic Research Service coordinates input to the economic models behind the analysis and drafts the text of the report. Other agencies involved in the long-term projections analysis and review process include the Farm Service Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; and the Risk Management Agency.

For more information on USDA's long-term projections, visit the ERS Web site.

Early-Release Tables from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029

The USDA released the complete USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029 report in February 2020. The complete report includes the tables below, in addition to a full discussion of the commodity supply and use projections and projections for farm income and global commodity trade.

The Agricultural Act of 2018 is assumed to be extended and remain in effect through the projection period. The projections reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared during August through October 2019.

The projections use as a starting point the short-term forecasts from the October 10, 2019 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

U.S. macroeconomic assumptions
Global real GDP growth assumptions
Population growth assumptions
Acreage for major U.S. field crops and Conservation Reserve Program assumptions
U.S. feed grains
U.S. wheat
U.S. rice
U.S. soybeans and products
U.S. upland cotton1
U.S. sugar
U.S. livestock
U.S. dairy
 

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029

This report was released on February 14, 2020.
PDF
Excel tables (zipped)
Projections Database

Tables from current and previous Baseline reports are available on the report archive on the Mann Library website.
Previous reports are available on the Baseline Report page.

Long-Term Projections Process

Background on USDA's long-term projections and process are available on the ERS Website.

Contact Erik Dohlman, James Hansen, or David Boussios for further information.